Brentford v Bournemouth: Cherries to be picked off

• Bournemouth in poor form

• Brentford a threat from set plays

• Cherries have league's worst defence

Bees buzzing in second season

I must admit that without the influential Christian Eriksen, I thought Brentford would find their second campaign in the Premier League really tough. However, exceptional coach Thomas Frank (who has signed a new long-term contract) has found solutions, and the West Londoners have already got 26 points on the board. They have a double-figure cushion in the relegation battle, and there is even talk of a push for Europe - although the Bees are 18.017/1 in the Betfair Exchange top six finish betting.

A potential ban for star striker Ivan Toney looms large, but even without their 12-goal top scorer, Brentford were still able to beat Liverpool 3-1 recently. Indeed, Frank's side have already seen off Liverpool and both Manchester giants this season, and they led 2-0 against Spurs before having to settle for a 2-2 draw. Frank admits losing Toney would be a bitter blow, but the likes of Yoann Wissa and Bryan Mbeumo provide firepower, with eight league goals between them.

Set plays have been a big part of Brentford's armoury, with eight goals netted from free-kicks and corners, and a further four scored from the penalty spot. Going into this weekend, only Fulham, Liverpool and Spurs had scored more set-piece goals in this season's Premier League.

Brentford's relatively recent move from Griffin Park has been a big success, and it's worth noting how good their home record is at this level. Since being elevated to the Premier League for the first time, the Bees have won 11, drawn seven and lost ten of their 28 top-flight home games, which is a respectable record for a team of their stature. They have lost just two of the last 14.

Pontus Jansson and Shandon Baptiste are out, while Frank Onyeka and Aaron Hickey are on the road to recovery. Having missed the win over Liverpool, Toney should return after a muscle injury.

Bournemouth have the scope to save themselves

For all the talk of Bournemouth's squad not being good enough to compete at this level, the Cherries' heads are above water with 18 matches gone, and their recent change of ownership might herald an injection of quality. After an impressive spell as caretaker, Gary O'Neil has been given the keys to the kingdom, and must now keep his team out of the dropzone. New owner Bill Foley has talked about making plenty of new signings, and the club has been linked with exciting Lorient winger Dango Ouattara and Bristol City forward Antoine Semenyo.

However, while actual results have kept Bournemouth out of the relegation zone, the Infogol Expected Goals data makes for grim reading. It suggests the Cherries should be bottom, as they have the worst Expected Goals for figure in the division and the second-worst Expected Goals Against number. They have lost the xG battle in 16 of their 18 league games this term.

Conceding goals at set plays has been a thorny and persistent issue. Bournemouth have leaked a league-high 13 goals from free-kicks and corners, and a further five from the penalty spot. These figures have contributed to the Cherries having the worst defensive record in the division, with 39 goals leaked.

Midfield enforcer Jefferson Lerma is struggling with a knee injury, while O'Neil has had to deal with a host of long-term absentees, among them goalkeeper Neto. Adam Smith is suspended after picking up a fifth yellow card.

Brentford to pick up comfortable win

Brentford pose a big threat at set plays, and it's hard to see Bournemouth being able to contain them at free-kicks and corners, despite O'Neil's hard work to try to stem the bleeding in those situations. It's also worth noting that Bournemouth have lost their last five matches in league and cup, and in all competitions they have lost their last five away games.

We can use the Asian Handicap on the Exchange to back Brentford -1.0 at 2.26/5. If Brentford win by a single goal, our stake is returned, while a bigger win for the hosts gives us an odds-against pay-out.

Bullish Bryan worth backing

Bryan Mbeumo has been excellent for Brentford in the Premier League, and he looked good for Cameroon at the World Cup too. He is averaging exactly one shot on target per 90 in the Premier League this season, so I'll back him to have at least a shot on target in a Bet Builder on the Sportsbook.

Given that we think Brentford will pose a threat from set plays, I'll also back Ethan Pinnock to have a shot. Although he is yet to score in the league, he is averaging 0.6 shots per 90 in the top flight this term, which is on a par with fellow defenders like Ben Mee who are far shorter in this market.

If we combine Mbeumo having a shot on target and Pinnock simply having a shot, we get a price of 2.68/5. We can boost that to 3.82141/50 if we back the hosts to win the Corners Match Bet.

Bournemouth have conceded an average of 6.6 corners per PL game, and only Everton have a higher average. I expect Brentford to dominate proceedings, and I think they'll have a higher corner count.