Brentford v Arsenal: Odds-on Gunners look too short

There's been plenty of positivity around Arsenal so far this season, which makes a change, and there's little doubt they are moving in the right direction after a decent summer in the transfer market.

Yet the jury is still surely out on them.

They may head the table but we're only six games into the season and, frankly, the Gunners have played few sides of note so far.

Their five wins have all come against teams lower than Brentford in the embryonic table and when they faced their first real test against Manchester United they were beaten 3-1.

Ahead of this game, Mikel Arteta was keeping his cards close to his chest in terms of team news which means he's likely still sweating over injuries which have hit in recent weeks.

Aleks Zinchenko looks set to miss out again, as do Emile Smith-Rowe and Mohamed Elneny. Ben White is a doubt but at least Thomas Partey returned to training this week.

Bees are buzzing right now

Brentford seem unlikely to be an easy hurdle to overcome.

They've also caught the eye so far in 2022/23, losing only one of their opening six. At home, they've claimed seven points from a possible nine.

It's fair to say they've also yet to meet any of the really big fish in this particular pond but they dismantled both United and Leeds on home soil.

Their strong start follows on from an impressive end to last season. Add the two together and Thomas Frank's men have won five and drawn two of their last eight at the Community Stadium, while at all venues, they've won nine and lost only four of their last 17.

The Christian Eriksen-sized hole in their XI hasn't looked as big as many feared with a fit-again Josh Dasilva impressing, while up front Ivan Toney's form has won him an England call-up just two months before the World Cup.

Another player who doesn't get the same number of headlines but one who also plays a key role in this team is Bryan Mbeumo. He links up well with Toney and is usually a handful for opposition defences, coming in off the right-hand side.

Both men will likely look to take advantage of the new high line Arsenal have tended to play, while there's another area where the hosts will look capitalise.

Last time out against Leeds, a game they won 5-2, the Bees preyed on a shaky backline, winning the ball back high up the pitch and punishing their visitors.

Harassing Arsenal's defenders and keeper when they try to play out from the back is a tactic many sides have had success with in the past. Expect them to at least try it here.

Gunners worth opposing

In short, I think Brentford, who won this fixture 2-0 last season and are 4.77/2 for a repeat success, have enough about them to get something out of this game and the visitors look skinny at 1.824/5 to win.

That element of self-doubt which has dogged Arsenal in the past could return after they were found out at Old Trafford and I'm happy to take them on given they are odds-on for victory.

A lay of the visitors at 1.834/5 is suggested.

Goals on the cards

For those looking at the goals markets, the data suggests viewers should be entertained.

Over 2.5 (available to back at 1.738/11) has landed in five of six for Arsenal and four of six for Brentford.

For both teams to score (1.75/7), it's five of six for Brentford and four of six for Arsenal.

The latter is my preference and looks a decent Bet Builder staple - remember this weekend Betfair are giving punters a free £2 Bet Builder on any Premier League game.

Bet Builder shots options

It's also worth considering the shot markets.

Only Manchester City have had more shots than Arsenal so far, with Brentford also in the top half of this statistical table.

Brentford are in the top six for shots conceded and while Arsenal have a good record on this metric, I again think a lot of that can be put down to their limited opponents so far.

So for Brentford, consider Ivan Toney 2+ shots - he's landed this five times out of six, should be buzzing after his call from Gareth Southgate and is on penalties and free kicks (he scored one of each against Leeds).

Bryan Mbeumo 2+ shots is another good-looking option (landed four times in six games), while of the defenders Ben Mee is leading the way. The former Burnley captain has had 1+ shot in four of six too with Brentford strong on set-plays (they are fourth in the league for shots from such situations).

On Arsenal's side, Granit Xhaka (pictured) and Gabriel Magalhaes both offer value.

As mentioned previously on these pages, Xhaka is in a more attacking role these days. He's had 2+ shots in three of six games so far this term - that's on offer at 15/8 here.

And Gabriel has managed 1+ shot in five out of six. With Arsenal having the best set-plays expected goals (SP xG) figure, he's a good shout to keep that run going here.

Put the five suggestions together to get a 16/1 Bet Builder. Add the both-teams-to-score play to take it to 25/1.

Opta fact

Brentford have scored 15 goals in their six Premier League games this season, with only Manchester City netting more (20). Their average of 2.5 goals-per-game is almost double their average for last season (1.3 - 48 goals in 38 games).

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