Bournemouth v Tottenham: Back the Cherries and more set piece woes for Spurs

• Spurs without Van der Ven remain opposable

• Bournemouth now believe they can beat the big boys

• Set piece woes to continue for Ange

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Bournemouth v Tottenham
Thursday 5 December, 20:15
Live on Amazon Prime

Van der Ven absence makes Spurs vulnerable

We've got to back Bournemouth here in what should be a very watchable encounter involving two high-octane and high risk-reward teams.

At the prices, I'm willing to invest in Andoni Iraola's football to win the day here with Bournemouth 13/82.63 for the home win. They just seem in a more stable and consistent place at the moment than Tottenham, who on their day can beat anyone but are really feeling the pinch playing twice a week without their key defensive reinforcements.

Fulham should've followed Crystal Palace and Ipswich in registering a victory over Spurs following a European midweek, recording a higher expected goals total, posting more shots and registering almost twice as many touches in the opposition box. It was another worrying display from Ange Postecoglou's team.

Micky van der Ven really is such a huge miss for Spurs.

He is the bedrock and the insurance policy that allows Spurs to play higher up the pitch and sustain attacks against the opposition. When he's missing, their win percentage drops from 55 per cent to 43 per cent and they face 4.2 more shots per game, pointing towards a deeper defensive line that soaks up more pressure but does therefore affect their ability to relentlessly attack under this manager.

Bournemouth have only lost three of their last 12 matches at home, recording memorable wins over Manchester City and Arsenal in that period as they've started to find the belief that beating the top-six teams is possible playing this style of football.

I think they're the most likely winners here and that is not replicated in the market.

Goals on the cards as defences falter

The loss of Van der Ven doesn't exactly help matters when it comes to Tottenham's defensive set piece output - it's bad enough with his presence.

Spurs have the worst record when it comes to shots faced per corner this season, conceding 39 shots from 72 corners faced - that's more than a shot for every two corners conceded.

Every opposition centre back to have played against Spurs in the last four games has managed to register a shot at goal, that's nine players, including Calvin Bassey and Issa Diop managing three between them in the 1-1 draw with Fulham on Sunday.

That makes backing the Bournemouth centre-back Illia Zabarnyi an easy decision to make when he's 10/111.91 with the Betfair Sportsbook to have at least one shot. He's not got strong shot data, far from it, but he goes up for every set piece and Spurs are going to make it easy for him to get something towards goal.

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