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Bournemouth v Liverpool: Seven-up sparkle to linger?

Andy Schooler
11 March 2023
3:30 min read

Virgil van Dijk: Should prove a threat from set pieces

Bournemouth vs Liverpool
Sat 11 Mar, 12:30

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Are Liverpool truly 'back' after their Manchester United demolition or will their away-day blues return at Bournemouth on Saturday lunchtime?

Away record a concern for Reds' backers
Van Dijk to prey on Cherries' weakness
Smith card a strong possibility with strict ref

This looks a classic example of where a punter needs to decide on where the balance lies between short and longer-term trends.

Despite Gary Neville's protestations, Liverpool did play a lot of good football at Anfield last Sunday en route to their 7-0 triumph over Manchester United.

Improving Reds

It was a result which extended their recent improvement - the Reds have now collected 13 points from the last 15 available and a win here will take them into the top four for the first time this season.

Importantly, it's now five clean sheets in a row for Jurgen Klopp's side in the league and it's hard to envisage too many changes to the team that beat United, even with a Champions League trip to Real Madrid looming - remember they trail that tie 5-2 and while they've had many a miracle in that competition before, surely priority has now moved to ensuring they are in it again next season.

However, to truly show they are ready to secure that top-four spot, away results are needed - and they have been notable by their absence this season.

In 12 games, only 12 points (and three games) have been won. A paltry 13 goals have been scored away from Anfield with Liverpool failing to score in five of 11 away matches, including at Forest, Wolves, Everton and Palace, each a drop rival of Bournemouth.

That's a record which suggests a lay of the visitors does have the potential to reap rewards.

Will renewed confidence lead to that record being cast aside at Dean Court (as I still want to call it)? Probably.

Bournemouth

Liverpool

Aston Villa 3 0 Bournemouth
Bournemouth 1 0 Liverpool
Arsenal 3 2 Bournemouth
Bournemouth 1 4 Manchester City
Wolverhampton Wanderers 0 1 Bournemouth
Bournemouth 1 1 Newcastle United

Liverpool 0 0 Fulham
Real Madrid 1 0 Liverpool
Bournemouth 1 0 Liverpool
Liverpool 7 0 Manchester United
Liverpool 2 0 Wolverhampton Wanderers
Crystal Palace 0 0 Liverpool

Bournemouth vs Liverpool Saturday 11 March, 12:30

Full stats

But do I want to back this Liverpool side to win the game at 1.4640/85? No.

Of course, many will and I can understand that.

Betfair Super Boost

Don't forget to back the Super Boost this weekend, which sees Liverpool's Cody Gakpo boosted to have 1 or more shots on target at even money - this has been super boosted from 1/3!

The Dutchman fired three shots vs Man Utd last week, with two of those hitting the back of the net! Remember, he doesn't need to score for this to land!

Cody Gakpo 1+ shots on target (was 1/3) NOW

EVS

Cherries ripe for the picking?

After all, Bournemouth (7.87/1) are on a pretty dreadful run - one win in 12 since the World Cup - although it should also be remembered they were within seconds of getting a result at leaders Arsenal last weekend.

Against Liverpool, they've lost their last seven, scoring only once. And, of course, in the reverse fixture in August they suffered a 9-0 humiliation.

Memories of that result will have people eyeing the overs in the goal markets.

Over 2.5 is at 1.674/6 with over 3.5 at 2.6413/8.

However, it should be noted that the unders have reigned for both sides of late - seven of the Cherries' last 10 have gone under the 2.5 line, while for Liverpool it's five of the last seven.

For those convinced Liverpool have turned the corner and will comfortably do the business here, it's worth noting a Bournemouth-related stat.

All seven of the basement-dwellers' matches against the current top five have seen them concede at least three goals.

Despite this, you can get 13/8 about that happening again here.

Salah 9/2 Bet Builder to land again?

Moving on to the player markets, an Opta fact which stood out given his current form is that Mo Salah has scored and assisted in five Premier League games already this season.

By using the Bet Builder tool, you can get the Egyptian, who has 10 goal involvements in his last eight games, at 9/2 to make that six here.

However, it is a couple of other prices which I prefer, starting with Adam Smith to be shown a card at 3.65 (or 13/5 with the Sportsbook).

The Bournemouth right-back has nine cards in 26 starts in all competitions this season, including five of his last eight.

It's also worth looking at who his cards have come against with Manchester City, Arsenal, Newcastle and Manchester United all on that list. Oh, and Liverpool in the 9-0 drubbing.

That's a nod to struggling against elite players and whoever Smith faces here - Darwin Nunez probably, with Diogo Jota another possibility - looks sure to fully test him.

1280 Adam Smith Bournemouth 2022 friendly.jpg

Throw in the fact that the referee is John Brooks - his card average of 4.7 per game is the highest among those officials who taken charge of at least three matches this season - and Smith looks worth a bet.

Back Adam Smith to be shown a card @

3.65

VVD to expose set-piece frailties

It could also pay to consider Bournemouth's vulnerability from set-plays - and Liverpool's strength on them.

Gary O'Neil's men have conceded more goals and more shots from set-pieces then any other side in the top flight. Which is a particular shame given they've also conceded the most corners.

Liverpool, second for corners won, are second for shots from set-pieces.

That immediately brings Virgil van Dijk into the frame.

He's landed the 2+ shots bet in nine of his 29 starts this season and given who he's up against here, that makes 23/10 about him doing so again look a bit on the large side.

Back Virgil van Dijk 2+ shots @

23/10

Opta fact

Mohamed Salah has been involved in 10 goals in his last eight games in all competitions (5 goals, 5 assists). The Liverpool forward has both scored and assisted in five different matches in all competitions this term, with no Premier League player doing so more often.

Opta-based bets: A 12/1 Salah Bet Builder features this week!