Lewis Jones' Betting Notebook: Premier League goals from range are flying in - how do we profit?

The long range revolution in the Premier League

The football nerds who have taken over football have always said the closer the shot, the better the chance of scoring.

But the 2026/27 Premier League season is giving us a reason to look a little further out.

Goals from outside the box are arriving at a record rate and the numbers are beginning to challenge the conventional wisdom around long-range shooting. For bettors, that creates an opportunity to reassess a market in which certain players, particularly defenders, are being priced up.

This angle first triggered the cogs to whirl in my head by Jake Osgathorpe of Sporting Life, who is always a man to follow across these niche props markets - and he's certainly onto something with this developing angle.

Opta's data shows that the Premier League is averaging 0.49 goals per game from outside the box, the highest rate since data started being collected in 2004. The previous high was 0.38 per game in 2023/24. That is a substantial jump, not a marginal fluctuation.

The volume of attempts is rising, too. There have been 9.63 shots from outside the box per game, the highest figure for eight seasons. We are seeing more long-range efforts and, crucially, more of them finding the net.

So what is driving the trend? Perhaps the quality of striking has improved with players becoming increasingly confident in their ability from distance.

Alternatively, the ball itself could be contributing to a different scoring environment, making life more difficult for goalkeepers. It is too early to declare either explanation the definitive answer though.

What matters from a betting perspective is that the outcome is happening often enough to deserve our attention.

Williams & Martinez on the long-range radar

Backing any player to score from outside the box is a high-variance bet. Even with the scoring rate elevated, goals remain relatively rare events.

The challenge is identifying the players whose underlying shooting habits justify playing at big prices. Those players will usually be defenders based on the way markets are priced.

According to Opta, players classified as defenders have attempted 130 shots from outside the box this season. So defenders are averaging 1.8 attempts per game from range. Of those efforts, 32 have hit the target.

Four defenders have already scored from outside the box: Ben Davies, Sven Botman, Abdul Ouattara and Lewis Dunk.

Bookmakers can underestimate attacking involvement when pricing individual player markets in this situation. A centre-back who steps into midfield or a full-back encouraged to attack the edge of the area backed up by evidence from their shots numbers is the key to finding players that are overpriced.

Which players are shooting from range but are overpriced in the to score from outside the box markets? That's the key.

Nottingham Forest's Neco Williams is an obvious example of the type of player worth monitoring.

His ability to strike the ball cleanly from range has been showcased for many years in the Premier League and he's had six shots from outside the box already this season without scoring. He did, however, find the net for Wales in the Nations League against Norway. A goal from range is in his locker.

Forest are away at Ipswich on Friday night and Williams' price for a goal from outside the box will be one to monitor.

Lisandro Martinez should be on the radar too. His off the pitch comments in the past week has shown he can be a bit of a maverick. And he's playing with a bit of that characteristic too, posting five shots from outside the box this season in a bid to perhaps inject some intent into Manchester United's attack.

United are next in Premier League action on Sunday at home to Bournemouth. That could be the time to catch a Martinez goal from range.

Now you've read Lewis' Notebook read more tips here