Aston Villa look fully focused in their pursuit of a top-four finish and Sky Sports' Lewis Jones expects them to swat aside Chelsea with Nicolas Jackson's foul count standing out as a betting angle to exploit...
Aston Villa v Chelsea
Saturday 27 April, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports
No stopping Villa in their top-four pursuit
Chelsea should be a reminder to everyone that football is all about functioning as a team. You can have all the talent in the world but if there's a lack of unity and balance within your structure, you are going nowhere as a team no matter what level you play at.
Chelsea showed that in spades in their defeat at Arsenal where they sank without a trace when the going got tough and lost 5-0. It's happened on multiple occasions this season away from home. In the 4-1 defeat at Liverpool, the 2-0 loss at Everton and the 4-1 beating at Newcastle.
Usually when a team who know their roles, fight for one another, and have talent in key areas come up against a team like Chelsea, that team wins.
So, I'm scratching my head a little as to why Aston Villa - one of the top four teams in the country - are as big as 1/12.00 to beat a Chelsea team that looked out of ideas at Arsenal. And one that has won just six of their 19 away games this season.
I can sense another 'throw in the towel' performance on the horizon from Mauricio Pochettino's men, even if Cole Palmer is fit to return.
Back the home win.
Konsa v Jackson could lead to 100/30 winner
Here's one for you. Which defender has won the most fouls in the Premier League this season?
Rampaging full-backs are jumping around your brain right now aren't they?
Well, you'd be on the wrong path. The answer is in fact Aston Villa's Ezri Konsa, who has been filling in at full-back this season but is more comfortable playing at the heart of the Villa defence.
He has an extraordinary ability to draw fouls off the opposition when in possession. Unai Emery encourages his players to be brave and bold on the ball and Konsa has taken note.
His 58 fouls won in his 31 games played in the Premier League this season puts him top of the tree for fouls won by defenders and his per 90 haul of 1.91 has him ranked fifth for defenders for that particular metric.
If anything, his numbers are on the rise, too. He's won 23 fouls in his last eight games, including three in Sunday's 3-1 win over Bournemouth.
With Konsa likely to play through the middle on Saturday against Chelsea, it seems sensible to try and profit from his direct opposition in terms of their foul count.
Nicolas Jackson is our target.
A striker who doesn't know where the goal is but certainly knows how to mix it, especially away from Stamford Bridge. He has made 13 fouls in his last nine starts on the road.
Playing as the lone front man can be a frustrating experience at times and Jackson has showcased a tendency for a late challenge or two - like the one he made on Takehiro Tomiyasu in Tuesday's 5-0 mauling at Arsenal.
But we don't even need him to go in that hard for us to land our bet as his prices surrounding making fouls, up against Konsa in particular, are showered with potential. He is 4/61.67 with the Sportsbook to make one or more which is most certainly an option for a Bet Builder.
But it's the 100/304.30 which gets me excited as a single for him to make two or more fouls, something he's done in his last two starts and has landed in six of his 14 starts away from home this season.
Combining a Villa win and the Jackson foul line also looks a smart way of grabbing some value.
Football... Only Bettor - Listen here!