Aston Villa v Arsenal: Back Havertz and Duran goals in 40/1 Bet Builder say Opta

• Gunners to score first at Villa Park

• Saka to draw fouls from opponents

• Havertz's heading for goal again

• Late Duran strike completes Bet Builder at 40/141.00

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Aston Villa and Arsenal both got their 2024/25 Premier League campaigns off to winning starts last Saturday.

Arsenal's 2-0 victory over Wolves at the Emirates Stadium was significantly more comfortable than Villa's 2-1 win away to West Ham, but both teams are on maximum points after one match.

There is plenty we can look at ahead of an intriguing meeting between two of last season's top four at Villa Park, so let's get stuck in.

Arsenal to strike first

If the West Ham match was anything to go by, it showed that Aston Villa's high-tempo style is unsustainable for a full 90 minutes.

After taking an early lead through Amadou Onana, Villa cruised through the first half before conceding through a penalty in the 37th minute. But after half-time, there were moments in which they ceded control to West Ham.

While Villa did create some chances in the second-half, and gamestate played a part, they lost the expected goals (xG) battle of the match and were very nearly denied victory by a last-gasp Tomas Soucek chance. West Ham's xG (2.5) was the second highest of any Premier League team across the opening weekend.

Ultimately, Villa had just one more shot than their opposition and less possession throughout the 90.

Against a team like Arsenal, who like to control matches and pin their opposition back in possession rather than rely on attacking transitions, we could see a clash of styles. Should the Gunners stand firm early on, they could be rewarded on Saturday evening.

At this stage, it is worth pointing out that Arsenal had the best defence in the Premier League last season, having conceded the fewest goals (29) and faced the fewest shots on target (87).

For context, Aston Villa conceded 61 goals in 2023/24 - at least 20 more than any other team in the top four - and faced 181 shots on target.

It's that defensive vulnerability that Arsenal could exploit and they look a good bet to score first at [4/7]. They are also available at [7/5] to win the first half.

On your head Havertz

In terms of goalscorers for the Gunners, one name leaps off the page.

Kai Havertz has been a revelation for Arsenal since his switch to centre forward, scoring nine goals and providing eight assists in 14 matches up top.

The German opened his account for the season with a header against Wolves on Saturday, making it five goals in his last six Premier League appearances. He is available at [21/10] to score at Villa Park.

Havertz scored three headers in the league 2023/24, which was the third-most of any player, while Arsenal ranked first for headed goals with 17.

The Gunners also ranked first for set-piece goals with 20, while Villa conceded 13 times from set-pieces last season - only Nottingham Forest, Burnley and Luton conceded more.

Havertz to score a header is appealing at 9/110.00.

Gabriel Magalhaes, meanwhile, scored four league goals last season - all headers - and should be considered at [9/1] too.

Villa to pay the penalty?

Another thing to think about when putting a bet builder together would be the amount of penalties Arsenal were awarded last season. Other than Chelsea (12), no team was given more spot-kicks than the Gunners (10).

Clearly, in controlling the match and moving the ball around the opposition box, Mikel Arteta's side were able to coax errors and fouls out of defenders when the pressure was on.

Should this game follow a similar pattern, Villa will have to be wary of the way they defend. They have already given away one penalty this season and also put in the equal-most tackles (24) in the league last week.

Having also ranked third for yellow cards last season with 94, it would suggest that their players can be overly aggressive and have a tendency to dive in. A penalty to be awarded is available at 6/42.50.

Bukayo Saka, meanwhile, was the fifth-most fouled player in the Premier League during the 2023/24 season, having drawn 69 fouls in 35 matches. He also drew two fouls in Arsenal's victory over Wolves last week and is [3/10] to be fouled twice or more on Saturday.

Hosts to hurt Arsenal late again?

It is important to make the distinction that this is likely to be a very different type of game to Aston Villa's victory last week.

Villa have shown recently they are capable of soaking up pressure and competing with Arsenal if their plan A doesn't work out.

Unai Emery's side did the double over the Gunners last season, most recently beating them 2-0 at the Emirates in April after two goals in the last six minutes of the match.

Aston Villa put in arguably their best performance of last season to win that match and, in doing so, withstood plenty of attacking threat from Arsenal when many teams would have folded.

Those goals at the Emirates were two of 15 that Villa scored in the last 10 minutes of matches in 2023/24 - more than any other team. Arsenal, meanwhile, conceded eight goals between the 81st minute and final whistle last season, making it their costliest window of time in matches throughout the season.

Furthermore, Aston Villa scored the last goal of the game on 25 occasions in the league during 2023/24 and did so again last Saturday.

It's that level of resilience that could get them back into this match and they are available at [7/5] to win either half, with a view to them winning the second half.

If Aston Villa are to score late on again, the obvious candidate to get the goal is super sub Jhon Duran [10/3].

The 20-year-old Colombian has started just three Premier League matches since his move from Chicago Fire in 2022, but don't let that put you off. Four of Duran's five Premier League goals in 2023/24 came from the bench, while he did the same to score the winner against West Ham.

That goal means Duran has scored six league goals from only 616 minutes on the pitch, giving him an average of a goal every 103 minutes. Of players to have scored five or more Premier League goals, only Erling Haaland (85) can top that.

Aston Villa v Arsenal Bet Builder Tip

With another free bet builder on offer to customers this weekend, the Opta's four-fold is available to back on the Betfair Sportsbook at 40/141.00.

Now read Alan Shearer Premier League Predictions: Villa to beat Arsenal plus wins for Wolves, Spurs & Southampton