Arsenal v Southampton: Gunners trend can deliver again with Friday night fireworks

• Top v bottom in Friday Night Football

• Gunners' home win trend worth following

• Gabriel a big set-piece threat

The wobble many have been expecting for months has finally arrived at Arsenal.

Each of their last two games - at Liverpool and West Ham - has seen a two-goal lead blown and now real questions are being asked about their ability to convert their long-standing Premier League lead into a title.

Title still in Gunners' hands

Yet, despite all the noise, the destiny of that title remains firmly in Arsenal's hands. Seven wins from here and they will be champions. Even six and a draw at championship rivals Manchester City on Wednesday would be enough.

Next week's showdown at the Etihad looks huge but the Gunners need to keep their eye on the ball and first deal with a Southampton side desperate for points in the battle against the drop.

No win in six and three straight defeats have left the Saints four points from safety with only seven games to play; time is running out.

They will be without Ainsley Maitland-Niles for this one - he's ineligible against his parent club - but Che Adams is back in contention.

For Arsenal, William Saliba again looks set to miss out due to his back problem so the oft-criticised Rob Holding is again likely to deputise. Oleksandr Zinchenko could return after a groin injury, though.

Stick with Arsenal/BTTS trend

Given their last couple of weeks, some may be happy to lay Arsenal on the Exchange at 1.222/9 in the win market. However, despite their recent stumble, it's hard to define their season so far as anything other than magnificent. They could yet finish with 95 points and home form remains excellent.

Their fans have delighted in their football but their backers have also been dancing jigs of delight - if they've been heading to the right market.

At the Emirates, Arsenal have really gone for teams and they've been rewarded with plenty of goals but few clean sheets.

Twelve of 15 home games have been won (and only one lost) and of those 12, a massive 10 have seen both teams score.

Of course, Southampton aren't a very good side - their position at the bottom of the league tells you that - but the fact is that the majority of their fellow strugglers have all scored at the Emirates this season.

Leicester, Leeds, West Ham, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace have all scored in defeats at the ground so far. Notably, all five teams also conceded 3+ goals - as did Everton.

So, while you'll get only 1.211/5 about Arsenal winning this game, 3.1511/5 is on offer about them continuing a strong trend and doing so whilst conceding.

Southampton, who earned a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture, have already scored away at Spurs and Liverpool and with Arsenal's confidence having taken a hit, it's not hard to envisage them adding another at some point here.

However, they also conceded 3+ in those games, as well as in away games at Man City and Brentford, so Arsenal should get chances to return to winning ways.

Back on home soil, I'd expect them to do just that.

Goals to be expected

In terms of goals, the above figures clearly show Arsenal's games tend to feature plenty.

Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of their games this season - a league high. The figure rises to an eyecatching 87% when the home filter is applied. It's a 1.528/15 shot on this occasion.

Over 3.5 goals has also been a profitable blind bet, landing in 73% of matches at the Emirates. That's 2.35/4 here.

1.9110/11 about Arsenal over 2.5 goals is also worth considering - that's occurred in every home game they've played against teams currently in the bottom half of the table, while Saints have struggled to keep the elite quiet.

Gabriel poses set-piece threat

That looks a decent Bet Builder play and those putting one together would do well to also note the threat Gabriel Magalhaes could pose in this game.

It makes sense to look for a big Arsenal threat on set-pieces. After all, only Man City and Newcastle have had more shots from such situations, while just Spurs and Brentford have scored more goals from them.

Meanwhile, only Brentford have conceded more goals from set-plays than Southampton.

The Brazilian defender has potential in the anytime scorer market at 7.26/1, although it's not exactly a price which sets the pulse racing.

Preference is to instead back Gabriel in one of Betfair's new props markets - headed shots on target.

He's 5/2 for 1+ and that looks good.

Gabriel has had a shot on target in four of his last seven starts in all competitions and all of them have been headers.

Clearly Arsenal's biggest set-piece threat, Gabriel can repeat the trick against a defence which looks set to be in for a busy day.

Opta fact

Arsenal have never lost in 23 Premier League home games against Southampton (W16, D7), the most one side has hosted another without ever losing in the competition.

Rivaldo: Arsenal's next chance may be years down the line