Arsenal v Chelsea: Back Gunners to win capital clash

• Chelsea's away form has collapsed

• Gunners a fair price for the win at 1.910/11

• Caicedo caution available at 17/102.70

Arsenal v Chelsea
Sunday 16 March, 13:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Gunners' title dream in tatters

Sport can be cruel, and there's a certain brutality about the fact that in a season where Arsenal's nemesis Manchester City have been brought low by injuries and a collective loss of confidence, Liverpool have simply risen up to replace them.

To make matters worse, just when the title race was getting to a point where the Gunners looked like they might be able to apply genuine pressure to their Merseyside rivals, they steadily lost their best attacking players. With Kai Havertz, Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Jesus and at one stage Gabriel Martinelli on the sidelines, Arsenal were shorn of the ability to turn tight games in their favour.

Arsenal have dropped five precious points across the last two matchdays, and are now 15 adrift of Liverpool with this weekend's game in hand. Their price to win the Premier League on the Betfair Exchange has swelled to a hefty 48.047/1, and even though they go to Anfield later in the campaign, it would take a Devon Loch-style collapse from Liverpool to reignite this title race.

The Champions League does however offer a chink of light amidst the gloom. A 9-3 aggregate destruction of PSV has set up a quarter-final against Real Madrid. That tie will be a wonderful clash of styles, as one of the best out-of-possession set-ups in football tries to contain the maverick freestylers from the Bernabeu. Mikel Arteta will doubtless have noted how well Atletico Madrid were able to stymie Los Merengues.

Raheem Sterling can't play against his parent club, and even though Bukayo Saka is on the mend after a long spell on the sidelines with a hamstring problem, the England winger won't feature here. Arteta rested the likes of Martin Odegaard, Ethan Nwaneri, Leandro Trossard and Gabriel Martinelli in midweek, and they should all return here.

Chelsea still on track for Champions League, but doubts persist

Given how many coaches Clearlake and Todd Boehly have already burned through in their chaotic tenure, Enzo Maresca can never consider himself as truly safe, and failure to qualify for next season's Champions League would put the Italian in a difficult spot. Chelsea have spent an enormous amount in the transfer market since the end of the Roman Abramovich era, and it's not immediately obvious whether a tangible difference has been made.

Yes, there is talk of projects and building for the future, collecting some of the world's best talents, but are Chelsea actually getting better? Last season under Mauricio Pochettino, the Blues ended up sixth on 63 points. Chelsea are currently fourth on 49, and while you'd expect them to take at least 15 points from the next 30 available to beat last season's tally, it's up to Maresca to nail down that golden ticket to European football's VIP club.

There is disgruntlement among some match-going fans with Maresca's possession-heavy style of play, which can be quite dull, although the caveat there is that the Blues actually have the joint-second best goal tally in the division. Many of Chelsea's players have spoken up in Maresca's defence, but a run of four Premier League wins in 12 has shone a spotlight on the Italian.

That dip in form has coincided with a drop in the performance levels of Cole Palmer. The England international is a magnificent player, but he has gone ten games without a goal, and in the recent win over Leicester he failed from the penalty spot for the first time in his professional career. I'm sure this is just a blip in what will be a stellar career, but it's come at an awkward time.

Nicolas Jackson, Romeo Lavia and Noni Madueke are all sidelined, while Mykhailo Mudryk is still suspended after testing positive for a banned substance.

Rotated Arsenal should have enough for the win

Arsenal losing ground in the title race shouldn't obscure the fact that they are comfortably a top-two side in the Premier League, and have been for a long time. Arteta has done sterling work, and his coaching has helped to craft one of the best defensive sides in the world.

The Gunners have won 25 of their last 35 home games in the Premier League, and this season they have beaten Manchester City, Nottingham Forest, Tottenham and Manchester United. Less than a year ago the Gunners dismembered Chelsea 5-0 in this fixture, and I think the 1.910/11 on offer for the home win is about right.

Don't be fooled by Chelsea's recent four-match winning streak - they overcame a limited Copenhagen team in the Conference League and beat two of the Premier League's bottom three. Chelsea haven't won a Premier League away game since early December, and they have lost four of the last five road matches in the top flight.

Caicedo to pick up another caution

You might think that 17/102.70 is too short to back a player to be carded, but in Moises Caicedo's case I'll make an exception. The aggressive Ecuadorean has been booked in seven of Chelsea's last 13 matches in all competitions, and for club and country he has been cautioned 13 times this season.

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