Women's Olympic Football Tips: Brazil can keep it tight against Spain at 15/8

• USA value to beat Germany again

• Brazil and Spain likely to be cagey

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USA v Germany (Tuesday, 17:00)

USA and Germany meet in Lyon for the first of the semi-finals, with the Americans holding a significant psychological advantage.

Emma Hayes' team have already beaten the Germans during this competition. Back in the group stage, USA ran riot with a 4-1 victory.

All of their three wins in Group B were comfortable, but that wasn't the case in the quarter-finals. The match against Japan went into extra-time, before Trinity Rodman finally broke the deadlock with the decisive goal in a 1-0 victory. It was Rodman's third goal in this tournament, with her teammate Mallory Swanson having scored the same amount.

Germany's quarter-final was even tighter. They drew 0-0 with the defending champions Canada at the end of extra-time and then won the resulting penalty shootout 4-2.

Though the Germans only scored one goal in their two games against top quality opposition, they do have firepower. They beat Australia 3-0 and Zambia 4-1. Bayern Munich's Lea Schuller has scored three goals in the competition.

With USA having already beaten the Germans by a large margin, odds of 10/111.91 for their victory seem generous. It's likely to be a closer game, but logic suggests that the Americans have to be backed to win within regular time, to reach the final.

Brazil v Spain (Tuesday, 20:00)

The second semi-final comes from Marseille where Brazil meet the World Cup holders Spain.

The hosts France were expected to be playing in this match, but Brazil pulled off something of a surprise result. Having struggled in the group stage, the Selecao started as outsiders against the French, yet Gabi Portilho's late goal earned them a 1-0 victory.

This is another semi-final where the two sides have already met. Brazil won their first game in Group C with a 1-0 victory against Nigeria. They then lost 2-1 to Japan and 2-0 to Spain.

Spain came very close to a shock elimination when they faced Colombia in the quarter-finals. They were 2-0 down before Jenni Hermoso provided hope with a late goal, which was followed by an equaliser by the Spanish skipper Irene Paredes in the 97th minute.

After managing to deny Colombia a famous victory at the death, it's perhaps no surprise that it was Spain that held their nerve in the penalty shootout with a 4-2 win. Before that match they had only conceded once in this tournament.

This looks set to be a tight game. Of the seven goals that Spain have scored in the competition, only one has come in the first-half, while all the four goals that Brazil have conceded have come in the second-half. Back the 0-0 half-time score at 15/82.88.

Now read Mark O'Haire's best bets for the 2024/25 Championship campaign