Scotland v Poland: Lewandowski can contribute to lively encounter

• Both defences leaking goals

• Lewandowski in form in La Liga

• BTTS an attractive price at odds-against

Scotland v Poland
Thursday 05 September, 19:45
Live on Premier Player

Scotland must bring back feel-good factor

It should never be forgotten that Steve Clarke has delivered something unprecedented as Scotland coach, qualifying for back-to-back European Championships. Despite a disappointing display at Euro 2024, the Tartan Army were a win away from celebrating the team reaching the knockout phase for the first time, but they fell short.

It was a strange set of games for Clarke and company over in Germany. They were dreadful in the opening match of the tournament, shredded by the hosts in a 5-1 drubbing. An improved performance saw them hold a strong Swiss team to a 1-1 draw, but then in a game they had to win, they were far too passive and unambitious against Hungary.

Yes, there's an argument to say Scotland should have been awarded a penalty at 0-0 against the Hungarians, but the truth is that in a huge game that they needed to win, Clarke's side managed four shots and an Expected Goals figure of 0.17. To many, that is unforgivable.

Clarke has used the Nations League format to good effect to aid qualification, and he takes these games seriously. Scotland's performances in the last Nations League (they won four of their games and lost just one) saw them promoted to the top division, and they will now face Poland, Portugal and Croatia. As Clarke's assistant John Carver says, these are the type of games Scotland fans want to see. Avoiding relegation would be an achievement, but only a top-two finish will guarantee that.

Given that we are just a few weeks into the domestic season, there have already been some fitness issues and pull-outs. Torino striker Che Adams is out with injury, while Celtic duo James Forrest and Greg Taylor have been sidelined. Clarke will choose between Lawrence Shankland and Lyndon Dykes in attack - new Birmingham signing Dykes is making up for lost time after missing Euro 2024 with injury.

Midfield could be a worry - Billy Gilmour and Scott McTominay both completed their moves to Napoli as part of Antonio Conte's revolution, but they are short of match fitness.

Razor-sharp Lewandowski still Poland's star turn

Given the lengths that Robert Lewandowski goes to keep himself in shape (he regularly has blood tests to assess his health, he eats dessert before the main to aid digestion and he has a punishing gym routine), it's perhaps no surprise that he is still banging in the goals for Barcelona at the age of 36.

The former Bayern Munich machine has already bashed in four goals in four La Liga matches for a rampant, table-topping Barcelona, and for Poland he scored against France at the Euros, the 83rd goal of his international career.

Poland failed to progress from a tough group in Germany, losing to the Netherlands and Austria before holding France to a 1-1 draw. Coach Michal Probierz has been retained, and will look to keep his country in the top division after a pair of wins over Wales kept them in League A last time out.

Although Lewandowski is firing, there are concerns elsewhere. Midfield ace Piotr Zielinski hasn't played since his arrival at Inter, while long-serving goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny has retired. Jakub Kiwior has been kept on by Arsenal, but seems down the pecking order after the arrival of Italian international Riccardo Calafiori.

Striker Arkadiusz Milik is injured, while the experienced Kamil Grosicki has confirmed his international retirement. Bologna goalkeeper Lukasz Skorupski is expected to be between the posts.

Both teams can find the net

Even though there is plenty at stake here, I'm not sure the teams involved are capable of making this a cagey affair. Scotland have seen both teams score in seven of their last 12 internationals, while Poland have seen a BTTS bet land in eight of their last 10 matches.

Both Teams To Score is odds-against here at 2.0621/20, and that seems a generous price to me.

Lewandowski the key to Bet Builder

The in-form Lewandowski has already scored four goals in La Liga, and while he doesn't have the same quality of ammunition with Poland, he still should be more than capable of hitting the target here. Don't be fooled by his quiet Euros - he wasn't fully fit, and the team played poorly in attack.

Lewandowski has been fouled at least once in 16 of his last 17 competitive internationals, and in that same spell he has committed at least one foul on 13 occasions.

If we back the Barcelona forward to have a shot on target, commit at least one foul and be fouled at least once, we get a combined price of around 6/42.50 on the Sportsbook's Bet Builder.

Now read our Bets of the Day here!