West Ham v Fulham: Hammers to take derby victory but may concede

West Ham v Fulham
Saturday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport Box Office

Hammers have chance to climb

West Ham boss David Moyes will look at the table and think West Ham deserve better than eight points from their opening seven games.

And he might not be too far wrong.

That said, gaining five of those points from the last four games - away matches at Leicester, Spurs and Liverpool and a home clash with Manchester City - was pretty impressive.

If City won their game in hand, that quartet would be the current top four so West Ham did well to come out with a win and two draws.

Of course, by getting those tough fixtures out of the way, they now have the chance to put points on the board, with struggling Fulham and Sheffield United their next two opponents.

First up are their London rivals and even though this could scream of banana skin, it's not a fixture they've had trouble with.

The Hammers are unbeaten in their last 10 head-to-heads with Fulham, winning six of those.

Cottagers cashing in

After starting off their latest crack at the Premier League with four straight losses, Fulham are finally up and running.

That's been helped significantly by a friendly set of recent fixtures and taking four points from Sheffield United away (1-1), along with Crystal Palace (1-2) and West Brom (2-0) at home was a reasonable haul.

Especially important was that first win last week and they'll want to try and ride that momentum here - especially with their next four Premier League assignments being home games with Liverpool and Everton and trips to Leicester and Manchester City.

"Wins breed a bit of confidence - you need wins to get that uplift," said boss Scott Parker later.

"We definitely got what we deserved. We are definitely maturing and definitely improving. We got a result and it is brilliant but we have to keep moving forward."

Without doubt, they'll go into this London derby with more of a pep in their step as they seek to win back-to-back Premier League games for the first time since April 2019.

Hammers odds-on for victory

West Ham started their home campaign with a 2-0 loss to Newcastle but have perked up considerably with a 4-0 thumping of Wolves and a creditable 1-1 draw with Man City.

They're 1.865/6 to make it two wins out of four at home and, as noted, historically this fixture has been good to them.

The Draw is on offer at 4.03/1 while Fulham are 4.67/2 to secure successive wins.

However, to put that price into context, the Cottagers have won just one of their last 24 away Premier League matches.

Applying another filter is equally as damning. Fulham have lost 15 of their last 16 London derbies, tasting defeat each of the last 12.

The journeys home may be quick but they're still constantly laced with frustration.

Unders has appeal

This has been a good match-up for goals down the years with 10 of the last 12 featuring Over 2.5 Goals. That's 1.814/5 this time, with Unders 2.0621/20.

West Ham have scored five times in their last two home games but, just as importantly, have a habit of conceding in front of their own fans/seats.

Stretching back to their last 13 Premier League outings at the London Stadium shows just two clean sheets. Both came in 4-0 wins.

They've conceded in six of their seven top-flight games this season so are vulnerable; it's just a case of whether Fulham have enough firepower to help the cause.

Seven goals in their last six Premier League encounters - four of those coming on the road - suggests they have it in them so, to borrow some US Election jargon, there are several pathways to over 2.5.

The pricing is almost the same for Both teams to Score, with 'Yes' at 1.78.

I wouldn't put anyone off either Over 2.5 or BTTS but there's another way to play this.

Same Game Multi market boosts home win odds

I'm putting my faith in West Ham winning this but also have a sneaky feeling - based on past evidence as well of course - that they'll concede on the way to victory.

Therefore let's head to the Same Game Multi market and tick West Ham and Both teams to Score at 3.46.

That's quite a jump from the basic West Ham win price but it's worth taking given their lack of home clean sheets and Fulham's ability to pop up with a goal.

Plenty of scoring options

Michail Antonio's absence is a slight concern if you want goals but West Ham have spread them around quite nicely.

Their last six have come from six different sources.

Jarrod Bowen offers plenty of goal threat and has three in seven so far in the Premier League. He could be a decent anytime punt at 15/8.

Opta Stat

West Ham manager David Moyes has won 12 of his 13 Premier League home meetings with Fulham, with his only failure coming in a 2-2 draw in February 2014 as Manchester United boss.