Athletic Bilbao and Valladolid are hardly entertainers, but Paul Higham says a quirk in the stats means both teams to score is a decent price on Wednesday...
"Neither teams' games see a lot of goals, but strangely both teams have scored in seven of their last 10. Valladolid have scored in their last eight meetings with Bilbao so the BTTS here looks a decent price."
Athletic Bilbao v Valladolid
Wednesday 28 April 18:00 BST kick-off
Live on LaLiga TV
Ivan Toney bagged us a winner on Tuesday, and we go from Brentford to Bilbao for Wednesday's follow-up.
You can thank Athletic Bilbao for the tremendous La Liga title race heading down the stretch after they scored a big upset victory over Atletico Madrid last time out, but can they build on that victory against lowly Valladolid?
Beating Atletico was a shock considering Bilbao had gone six games without a win in the league - they've still only won three in 13 but they've been draw specialists of late with eight stalemates in that same 13-game period.
Only losing to Barcelona and Atletico in that span though shows that Bilbao are a solid, if unspectacular side, but if you're talking about draw specialists then look now further than Valladolid.
No team in La Liga has drawn more games than Valladolid's 14 so the 3.259/4 on a draw here certainly has plenty of statistical weight behind it.
Although Valladolid badly need points to try and get out of the relegation zone, don't be expecting too many sparks to fly as Valladolid are among the lowest scorers in the division while Bilbao have a solid enough defence.
Nothing really points to a goalfest with these two - two of Valladolid's last 11 league games went over 2.5 goals and just three of Bilbao's last ten. Under 2.5 goals is well fancied at 1.625/8.
Not great entertainment on the face of it and both of these teams tend to have tight scrappy games...but, strangely they have seen goals at both ends regularly, with both sides seeing both teams score in seven of their last 10 league games.
Valladolid have scored in five of their last eight away games, and that relegation fear may just give them the energy to find a goal again, while against Bilbao they've scored in their last eight meetings.
Both teams to score clocking in at 2.01/1 then looks interesting given that's come off in seven of the last eight meetings and in the last three held in Bilbao.
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