Football Bet of the Day: Hosts can hit the bullseye with big win

RB Leipzig v Sandhausen
Friday April 15, 17:30

It finished Samsunspor 2 Goztepe 1 last night, which was enough to land our third straight odds-against winner this week. I would say it was a Turkish delight, but that would have been too much of a cliché, except I have just effectively said it.

Anyway, we're off to Germany now, as controversial outfit RB Leipzig look to take another step towards promotion to the top flight. The Red Bull-backed club aren't exactly popular amongst German football fans, who fear their progress as a portent of corporate influence in the sport. Because German football still admirably clings to the idea of fan ownership and maintains the 50 + 1 rule (no one person can own more than 50 per cent of a club's shares), clubs like RB Leipzig are treated with disdain and suspicion.

Despite this opprobrium, Leipzig are on course to win promotion to the Bundesliga for the first time in their short history. The club has only existed in its current form since 2009, when fifth-tier side SSV Markranstadt was bought by the Red Bull energy drink company. Leipzig are second in the standings, six points clear of third-placed Nurnberg with just five games left.

RB Leipzig have been excellent on home soil this term, winning ten of their 14 home games and losing just twice. They have won their last seven home games, and it's worth noting that seven of their ten home victories have come via a margin of two goals or greater. Although Ralf Rangnick's side have lost to promotion rivals Freiburg and Nurnberg since the winter break, they have won seven league games out of ten in 2016.

There's little to suggest that Sandhausen will put up much resistance. With an eight-point buffer between themselves and the dropzone, they are unlikely to be relegated, but they have lost six of their last seven league games. On the road they haven't won a league game since November, and they have lost five of their last six away games.

Sandhausen have leaked 18 goals in their last eight league outings, while RB Leipzig are on excellent form, especially at the Red Bull Arena. I'm plumping for a comfortable home win.

Recommended Bet

Back Red Bull Leipzig -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 1.8810/11