Rotherham desperately need a result in the Championship tonight, but Luton are unlikely to make anything easy for the visitors, says Tobias Gourlay
"At Kenilworth Road this term, 15/22 games have finished with Under 2.5 Goals"
Luton v Rotherham
In Italy yesterday, Torino won the basement battle with Parma 1-0. Parma are relegated and it's not a great start to the week for us either.
We're on home turf today for a Championship match that sees another relegation-threatened outfit on the road in search of a much-needed three points. Rotherham are travelling to 12th-placed Luton and trends on both sides of the ledger say this could be a match of few goals.
Rotherham are third bottom, but will join fourth-bottom Derby on 43 points if they can win this game in hand, and give themselves a decent shot at staying up. That extra motivation makes Rotherham slight favourites to beat mid-table Luton, despite Paul Warne's visitors having failed to score a single goal across their last four away games. They've been shut out on 6/8 road trips since mid-February, only finding the back of the net against teams now 19th and 23rd in the table.
Seven of those eight games finished with Under 2.5 Goals in total, as the Millers are slightly better at the back than you might expect: they have conceded seven times across their last 11 away matches, and never more than once in a single game during that run.
Nathan Jones's hosts are W6-D4-L1 entertaining teams currently below them in the table. Despite their comfortable position, they're unbeaten in five, having recently beaten the teams in 19th and 24th. So we wouldn't expect them to roll over for tonight's needy visitors. At Kenilworth Road this term, 15/22 games have finished with Under 2.5 Goals, including nine of the last 11. At slightly better than evens, we'll take today's game to be another low scorer.
2021 P/L (1pt per bet)
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