Football Bet of the Day: Defences to crack at Almondvale Stadium

Livingston v Hibernian
Friday 19:45 (Live on BT Sport 1)

In Colombia last night, Cucuta Deportivo and Independiente Medellin defied the doubters and delivered on our Over 2.5 Goals bet at a chunky odds-against price. A 95th-minute equaliser earned the hosts a 2-2 draw that saw everyone walk away with something.

Today, we're making a similar bet in very different surroundings. In the Scottish Premiership, Hibernian have taken 13 points from a possible 15 since Paul Heckingbottom replaced Neil Lennon at the helm. The new boss has won his first two away games 4-2 and 2-1, and should fancy his chances of making it 3/3 at ninth-placed Livingston tonight. But, more than the Englishman in Edinburgh, it's the price on Over 2.5 Goals that's caught our eye.

Hibs have scored 11 times across those five matches, while conceding in both of those road games. Earlier this season, they came to Livingston without Heckingbottom and lost 2-1. Even so, Over 2.5 Goals is on offer at 2.466/4 and we reckon that's a price to jump on.

The hosts have served up Over 2.5 Goals in 8/14 at Almondvale Stadium, including six of the most recent seven. Despite their lowly league position, Livi have scored in 10/11 home matches that weren't against Rangers or Celtic, including all of the last seven. They scored twice or more in 4/7. Just like last night, this looks like two rickety defences going up against a couple of forward lines with cutting edges, and we think Over 2.5 Goals is generously overpriced.