Friday Football Tips: Cash in on McGinn at the Emirates

John McGinn of Aston Villa
John McGinn can hit the target for Aston Villa at the Emirates
  • Arsenal vs Aston Villa
  • Fri 22 Oct, 21:00

Our Friday football props bet has a Bet Builder double for Arsenal v Aston Villa headlined by Scottish midfielder John McGinn...

"Smith Rowe has only failed to hit the target once this season, while McGinn only has three but two of those came in his last two league games and he had three in two for Scotland."

Back Smith Rowe & McGinn 1+ shots on target with Bet Builder at around 5.04/1.

It's a quick turnaround for Arsenal who have a strange Monday-Friday week with two live TV games, as they host an Aston Villa side looking to recover from a recent mini-blip.

Late goals were the order of the day for both these sides, with Alexandre Lacazette rescuing a draw for Arsenal against Crystal Palace on Monday, while Villa crumbled against Wolves to let a late a two-goal lead slip at home as they lost 3-2.

Dean Smith will not be a happy bunny after that and his side will be fired up from the start here and should offer Arsenal plenty of problems with their energy.

Villa showed in their win at Old Trafford that they're a good side on their day, and it's usually been their day against Arsenal recently as they arrive in north London having won their last three games against the Gunners.

With the last nine league meetings at the Emirates all containing at least three goals it gives us plenty of scopes for shots, the market that's served us pretty well this week and one that has a few value plays in it.

Arsenal haven't had a problem hitting the target at home, with six, seven and seven shots on target in their last three - only Chelsea managed to restrict them to three in their home opener.

Villa managed six shots on target at Stamford Bridge even when losing 3-0, but that's an outlier this season and skews their overall numbers with eight further efforts from three away games at Watford, Spurs and Man Utd.
They've allowed 23 shots on target in their four away games

with at least four per game, while the Gunners have also been generous hosts with six, four and five allowed against Palace, Spurs and Chelsea (we're excluding Norwich's one effort because, well, it's Norwich).

So we'eve established shots on target should be in abundance but who will get them?

You've got the usual suspects for Arsenal but there could be a debate over the starting line-up after Lacazette's impact off the bench on Monday and Bukayo Saka's injury.

Lacazette looks like he's playing for a contract, either at Arsenal or elsewhere, and he should be good for a shot on target even if he's on the bench. If he starts then back him for two at just over Evens.

For consistency though it's hard to beat Emile Smith Rowe - who is a bit of a favourite here and no wonder as he's had a shot on target in his last six games having been ordered to shoot a bit more. He's following the advice but is still just under Evens to hit the target yet again.

For Villa, Ollie Watkins scored twice here last season and Danny Ings is always a threat but they're pretty short and you wouldn't be confident of them both converting if doubled up.

Instead, we're looking a bit further down the list and I think there's some good value in John McGinn to hit the target, which he's only managed to do three times in the league this season.

I'm a big believer in recent form for these types of betting markets as the overall stats can be misleading, and McGinn has hit the target in his last two league games - also scoring and laying on an assist against Wolves.

I also don't mind taking international football into account. Yes it was only against the Faroe Islands and Israel but a goal and three shots on target in two games still keeps the run going, and you can't measure confidence which is, after all, a big influence in shooting and scoring.

With no Granit Xhaka Arsenal's midfield is also a bit more open and McGinn arriving into the box, plus his shooting from outside it, make him a stand-out in this market.

The double, at around 4/1 with Bet Builder, could give us a nice little boost heading into the weekend.

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2021/22 COLUMN P/L

Staked: 68pts
Returned: 94.05pts
P/L: +26.05pts

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