Borussia Dortmund should beat Mainz on Sunday, but Paul Higham says there are several reasons why looking at the half-time/full-time double result is the best value...
"Dortmund only won the cup on Thursday while Mainz have only been behind at half-time three times at home all season. The vivitors should win but they'll have to work for it."
Mainz v Dortmund
Sunday 16 May, 17:00 kick-off
Live on BT Sport
Borussia Dortmund are in flying form in Germany and head into their game with Mainz in fine spirits after their emphatic German Cup final victory over RB Leipzig.
Dortmund have won five straight Bundesliga games to lift them right back into the Champions League places, but they'll need to finish strong to complete the job.
Mainz should offer stern resistance as they currently sit on their joint-longest unbeaten run in the Bundesliga in a decade with nine games without tasting defeat.
At home, though, Mainz have not been at their best with just four league wins all season on home turf, and in Dortmund they now face a side that have scored at least twice in five straight away days in the Bundesliga.
The half-time scenario is fascinating as Dortmund have recovered more points from being behind at half-time than any other side in the league.
Edin Terzic's side have, in fact, only been ahead at the break seven times all season, and just twice away from home. However, they've been a much better first-half side of late as they've led at half-time in every one of their last seven games in all competitions.
So what will prevail? Dortmund's recent fast-starting record or their second half resurgence?
For a couple of reasons, I fancy it'll be the latter as Dortmund should win this game - the need is greater and they're obviously the better side in better form.
Mainz have only lost the first-half at home three times in the league this season - that's the same record as Bayern for reference.
Dortmund may also struggle to make such a bright start given they lifted the cup only on Thursday so may have a bit of a hangover, but they desperately need the points for Champions League qualification.
Dortmund should win, but will have to work for it, and at 4.216/5 for draw/Dortmund in the half-time/full-time market, that's a decent price for what should be the script on Sunday.
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