Jake Osgathorpe is back for GW4 of the Premier League, using Infogol data to pick out the best goalscorer, booking and Same Game Multi bets for the highlight games...
"Hojbjerg has been booked only once so far this season, but is giving away 2.9 fouls/avg match. He could find himself in the book and the price about that looks juicy."
Abraham to get Chelsea rolling
Chelsea vs Crystal Palace
Goalscorer: Tammy Abraham to score first @ 16/5
Chelsea have been far from themselves so far this season, and needed a dramatic late goal to salvage a point at lowly West Brom last time out in the top-flight. Not the kind of result they want. While they have struggled to create chances on the whole this season, it is worth noting that they had two 'big chances' prior to the Baggies netting their second. One of those fell to Tammy Abraham, who was given his first PL start of the season. Last season he averaged 0.77 xG/avg match in the league, and if he is given the nod again here, I like his price to open the scoring.
Card: Joel Ward to be booked @ 7/2
Joel Ward has already collected two yellow cards this season, one last weekend against Everton and things won't get easier for him. It is highly likely that he will come up against Timo Werner at some point in this match, with the rapid German liking to come in from the left-hand side channel, right where Ward should be situated. He looks over-priced to me.
Same Game Multi: Chelsea to win, Over 2.5 Goals and Tammy Abraham 2+ shots on target @ 3.43
I think Chelsea will prevail in this game, but given their defensive issues, I wouldn't be surprised to see them concede a goal or two, so I see a high-scoring game. If he starts, Abraham for me looks good for 2+ shots on target having averaged 1.4/avg match last season. He managed two on target attempts at West Brom, and I see Chelsea peppering the Palace goal in a similar manner here.
Cracking clash at Elland Road
Leeds vs Manchester City
Goalscorer: Riyad Mahrez to score anytime @ 8/5
Manchester City are under a bit of early season pressure after a shock defeat at home to Leicester, so really need to bounce back here. They remain without Gabriel Jesus and Sergio Aguero, meaning the onus will be on the likes of Sterling, De Bruyne, Foden and Riyad Mahrez to shoulder the goalscoring burden. Sterling played as a 'false 9' last week but barely had a sniff, and that could be the case again. Mahrez, cutting in from the right-hand side, could find joy, and he looks the value play of the City forwards.
Card: Fernandinho to be booked @ 15/8
With the signing of Ruben Dias, Fernandinho's days of playing at centre-back may be behind him. The Brazilian is expected to line up in the midfield once again in this game, and he may be flustered by Leeds' full pitch press. He is more than capable of a cynical foul if Leeds are breaking, and I suspect he may have a difficult afternoon in West Yorkshire.
Same Game Multi: BTTS, a goal in both halves, Patrick Bamford 1+ shot and Riyad Mahrez 2+ shots @ 2.69
I think we are all expecting an entertaining game, with BTTS and a goal in both halves likely given the attacking approach of both sides. Patrick Bamford has been enjoying himself so far this season, getting opportunities and scoring in every game, and Mahrez loves a pop from distance, so to boost the price I've added him to have 2+ shots in the game.
Laca to come good
Arsenal vs Sheffield United
Goalscorer: Alexandre Lacazette to score first @ 7/2
Arsenal's main attacking threat, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, has been kept very quiet in their last two outings, with it being Alexandre Lacazette who has led Arsenal's charge this term. The Frenchman has netted three times so far from chances equating to 2.4 xG (6 shots). To put that into context at this early stage of the season, Aubameyang has taken four shots equating to 0.27 xG. So basically, Laca is getting in better scoring positions than his mate, and he is a bigger price to open the scoring in this one.
Card: George Baldock to be booked @ 5/2
In what I expect to be a closely fought affair with few goals, we could see quote a few niggly fouls between two teams who play in similar systems. Looking at the potential match-ups, I think George Baldock could have a tough task down the Blades right. The proposition of Bukayo Saka and a Kieran Tierney overlap could spell trouble for Baldock, who has conceded 2.3 fouls/avg match this season so far.
Same Game Multi: Under 2.5 Goals and Alexandre Lacazette 2+ shots on target @ 4.92
I don't think this will be an overly exciting game in terms of goals, as I spoke about on this weeks Football...Only Bettor, so under 2.5 goals appeals. Arsenal don't take too many shots, but Lacazette has taken six shots this season and hit the target five times (1.99/avg match). He appears to be their focal point at the moment, so I'm happy to chance him to have 2+ shots on target.
Fernandes to make his mark
Manchester United vs Tottenham
Goalscorer: Bruno Fernandes to score anytime @ 15/8
To put it simply, Manchester United have been poor since the league started. They were given a gift of a penalty last weekend against Brighton, which was duly dispatched by Bruno Fernandes. He is one of the only United players that is playing with the tenacity we saw post-break, and if anything is to happen for United, it is likely to come through him. The fact he takes penalties is a huge plus, as with the likes of Rashford, Martial and Greenwood running at this Spurs defence, the chance of a penalty being given is high. His price to score looks big to me, as does Harry Kane (8/5).
Card: Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg to be booked @ 12/5
Given Spurs' ridiculously harsh schedule, with a crazy fixture pile-up, I expect United to be the aggressors in this game. That means the likes of Fernandes and Pogba will be running the show, and playing passes behind Spurs' defensive midfield, or driving past them. Hojbjerg has been booked only once so far this season, but is giving away 2.9 fouls/avg match. He could find himself in the book and the price about that looks juicy.
Same Game Multi: BTTS, Over 2.5 Goals, Harry Kane 1+ shot on target and Bruno Fernandes 1+ shot on target @ 3.45
Given what we have seen from Manchester United defensively so far this season, I think we could be in for a few goals at Old Trafford. Spurs have shown their attacking capabilities of late, but the tiredness could be a factor and mean they too look vulnerable at the back. There is no Son for Spurs, so Kane will be their main danger, and he should test David de Gea, and Fernandes loves a pop from distance as well as getting in dangerous scoring positions.
Chelsea vs Crystal Palace - Chelsea to win, Over 2.5 Goals and Tammy Abraham 2+ shots on target @ 3.43
Leeds vs Manchester City - BTTS, a goal in both halves, Patrick Bamford 1+ shot and Riyad Mahrez 2+ shots @ 2.69
Arsenal vs Sheffield United - Under 2.5 Goals and Alexandre Lacazette 2+ shots on target @ 4.92
Manchester United vs Tottenham - BTTS, Over 2.5 Goals, Harry Kane 1+ shot on target and Bruno Fernandes 1+ shot on target @ 3.45