Jake Osgathorpe is back for GW3 of the Premier League, using Infogol data to pick out the best goalscorer, booking and Same Game Multi bets for the highlight games...
Entertaining clash on south coast
Brighton vs Manchester United
Goalscorer: Neal Maupay to score anytime @ 11/5
Brighton have made a very impressive start to the season, limiting Chelsea to just 0.6 non-pen xG in their opener before thumping Newcastle 3-0 (xG: NEW 0.6 - 1.8 BHA). The system Graham Potter is currently operating looks to be getting the best out of his players, and Neal Maupay looks very comfortable with the extra support of Aaron Connolly and Leandro Trossard in a front three. The Frenchman keeps on getting himself in good scoring positions having already been on the end of 1.0 non-pen xG, and he is now on penalty duties, so I like his chances of notching against a United defence that looks far from convincing.
Card: Tariq Lamptey to be booked @ 7/2
What a start to the season it has been for Tariq Lamptey. He has been nothing short of sensational, with the Englishman jumping off the screen in an eye-catching nature with his all-round performances. This will be a tougher test than he's faced already though, with United possessing some serious pace out wide, with all of those players very direct in their approach too. Lamptey has seen yellow once already this season, I like the price about him getting another here.
Same Game Multi: BTTS, Over 2.5 Goals and 30+ booking points @ 4.58
I continue to be impressed by Brighton and Graham Potter, and I believe that they are one of the best coached teams in the Premier League. The Seagulls will give United a game here, and I can see them netting in a high-scoring game. Given the pace and directness of players on both sides, I think we may be in for a few cynical fouls, so 30+ booking points to boost the price of the Same Game Multi catches my eye.
Werner to get off the mark
West Brom vs Chelsea
Goalscorer: Timo Werner to score first @ 5/2
Chelsea haven't yet clicked in the Premier League this season, especially in attack, but Wet Brom present a great opportunity for them to find their groove. The shining light so far for the Blues has been Timo Werner, who has looked incredibly sharp from the first whistle, even though he has been starved for service (0.46 xG). Against this West Brom defence, I think Werner will get his first Chelsea goal, and at 5/2 to open the scoring, he looks tempting.
Card: Jake Livermore to be booked @ 13/5
It has been a struggle so far for West Brom, conceding eight goals and 6.8 xGA in two matches against two strong sides, and they face another here. What we have seen in both of their games so far is opponents progressing through lines with ease, through passes and carries. If that continues, then midfield enforcer Livermore could have a lot of people running at him and past him, so I like his chances of being booked. He has committed six fouls already this season.
Same Game Multi: Chelsea to win, Over 2.5 Goals and Werner to score @ 2.57
Chelsea should prove too strong in this one, and I can see them winning comfortably and inflicting another heavy defeat on the beleaguered Baggies. Werner should get off the mark in a high scoring Blues win.
De Bruyne to shine again for City
Manchester City vs Leicester
Goalscorer: Kevin De Bruyne to score anytime @ 5/4
Manchester City got off to a cracking start on Monday night, winning 3-1 at a tough venue against a stubborn side, and doing so in impressive fashion. Kevin De Bruyne was able to play in a more advance number 10 role, and pulled the strings all night while also getting himself in scoring positions (0.34 non-pen xG). He has assumed penalty taking duties as well over the last six months, so he looks an enticing price to hit the net in what I think will be a high-scoring City win.
Card: Nampalys Mendy to be booked @ 3/1
Leicester have made a promising side to the season after winning both matches, but they haven't yet impressed against two teams well below the standard of this Man City side. The Foxes have a few injury concerns, notably Wilfred Ndidi, which could mean Nampalys Mendy gets another start in holding midfield. He will have to deal with the dynamic City midfield running past him, and having seen him get booked last weekend against Burnley after some cynical fouls, I can see that happening again.
Same Game Multi: Manchester City win, BTTS and Kevin De Bruyne 2+ shots on target @ 6.97
City look good, and I think they will beat Leicester on Sunday, though I see Leicester getting on the scoresheet, just like Wolves did on Monday. De Bruyne is the orchestrator of the City attack, and when playing further forward on Monday took four shots, with all four hitting the target, so the big price (11/10) about him to have 2+ SOT boosts the price nicely.
Salah to enjoy home comforts again
Liverpool vs Arsenal
Goalscorer: Mohamed Salah to score first @ 16/5
Liverpool looked really impressive to me last week against Chelsea, even when playing against 11-men, and have done so far this season. To me they look more like the team that started last season than the one that finished it, which is worrying for the entire Premier League. Mohamed Salah netted a hat-trick in his first appearance at Anfield this term, and he has been on the end of chances equating to 2.27 xG already. I think he looks big to open the scoring in a game I expect Liverpool to win comfortably.
Card: Saed Kolasinac to be booked @ 3/1
Kieran Tierney is a doubt for this game, meaning Saed Kolasinac could again be asked to play on the left side of a back three, which spells trouble. He will have to deal with Salah's out-to-in runs, and can be a little hot-headed, so to me this price looks generous - if he is given the nod.
Same Game Multi: Liverpool to win and Mohamed Salah to score @ 2.245/4
I think the gulf in class between these two sides will emphasised on Monday. Though Arsenal won the last league meeting at the Emirates, Liverpool had already won the title at that point and were sloppy defensively, gifting Arsenal two goals. Despite that, the Gunners managed just three shots in total and were peppered for most of the game ultimately being fortunate to win. I like a comfortable Reds win, with Salah the player I like to get on the scoresheet.
On this week's Football...Only Bettor podcast, Jake and the panel delivered a mini-masterclass on using Same Game Multis...
Brighton vs Manchester United - BTTS, Over 2.5 Goals and 30+ booking points @ 4.58
West Brom vs Chelsea - Chelsea to win, Over 2.5 Goals and Werner to score @ 2.57
Manchester City vs Leicester - Manchester City win, BTTS and Kevin De Bruyne 2+ hots on target @ 6.97
Liverpool vs Arsenal - Liverpool to win and Mohamed Salah to score @ 2.245/4