Football Tips

Premier League Bet Builders: Manchester City, Spurs and Leeds to win out on a dramatic final day

  • Stephen Tudor
  • Published on
  • Updated on
  • 4.0 min read
Pep Guardiola, Man City boss
Once more into the breach for Pep

"Don’t be surprised if the Villans at least land a punch on an opponent they have failed to best in 12 previous encounters."

Ste Tudor looks at where the Premier League goals, assists and three points will likely come from as the 2021/22 season draws to a close...

Man City v Aston Villa - Plenty of shots at glory

Kyle Walker and John Stones have both in training and if available that would be an enormous fillip for the title-chasing Blues, who looked uncharacteristically tremulous at the back last week at the London Stadium.

Analysis of that game, and how the Hammers prompted moments of panic from even elementary attacks, will offer genuine encouragement to Villa who have been more adventurous of late, taking on 22 shots at home to Burnley on Thursday.

Don't be surprised if the Villans at least land a punch on an opponent they have failed to best in 12 previous encounters.

City though have a proven track record in final-day title deciders, having won three in the last decade and furthermore they have the firepower to force the result they need. Prior to drawing in East London, and under huge pressure, Pep Guardiola's men became the first English top-flight side to win by a 3+ margin for five games on the bounce.

Back BBTS, City to win the second half, and City to have 7 or more shots on target @

4.9

Arsenal v Everton - Toffees are sweet

Now that Everton are safe, all eyes will be on the Gunners this weekend as they strive to put pressure on their North London neighbours and reclaim fourth spot against the odds. Yet it's the Toffees who hold all the keys at the Emirates.

Having pulled off a miraculous second-half comeback this week to ensure their top-flight status, will it be a case of job done for the visitors? If it is indeed a post-Lord Mayor's Show display, it's pertinent that Frank Lampard's men last won away from Goodison way back in August. Should they concede three it will be their worst defensive return in the Premier League era.

It is just as feasible however that Everton will travel to the capital still riding an enormous high from avoiding the drop and play, for the first time in several months, with freedom. Arsenal meanwhile have consecutively imploded in recent weeks and will be heavily burdened.

In games like this mentality can dictate the result as much as performance.

The Gunners last lost on the final day of the season way back in 2005. That fine record may well end on Sunday.

Brentford v Leeds - A feast of necessity

Famine or feast has been Leeds' big problem since Jesse Marsch took charge and this extends to every facet of their football, from goals scored to overall performances. Recriminations though can wait because all that matters this Sunday is that they do enough, however possible, however ugly, and however fortunate to secure the precious points in West London.

This won't be easy given that Brentford haven't conceded at home for six-and-a-half hours and all told the Bees are enjoying a strong finish to 2021/22, losing just two of their last ten. Impressively, for a side that leans on Ivan Toney's finishing, they have shared around the goal-scoring too, with ten different scorers of their last 15.

Desperation can do strange things to any narrative however, and don't be surprised to see form upended here. Leeds have no other option left but to throw the kitchen sink.

Brighton v West Ham - Honours even

The Hammers appear to be ending a positive campaign on a high, with a bold showing against Manchester City built on a ruthless dismissal of Norwich seven days earlier. Their painful loss to Frankfurt is now behind them and David Moyes' men head to the south coast in generally fine fettle.

Up front, Jarrod Bowen boasts three goals and two assists in his last three outings and crucially Michail Antonio is once again adding direct goal involvements to his wiling endeavour. Ben Steele believes Bowen will make the difference.

A concern for the visitors lies at the back, even if Zouma and Dawson have largely impressed in the absence of Angelo Ogbonna. Just three clean sheets since mid-January - to Wolves, who have one eye on the sun-loungers, and against relegated Watford and Norwich - does not inspire confidence they can contain a Brighton team who have been recently prolific by their standards.

The Seagulls' propensity to score early might also be a warning flag but shouldn't overly trouble the Hammers. Only three sides have won more points this term from losing positions.

Back Dominic Calvert-Lewin to score or assist, Leeds to have 4 or more shots on target, and Brighton/West Ham to draw @

15.0

Burnley v Newcastle - Clarets, reds and yellows

Some of us are old enough to remember a time when Newcastle's challenging end-of-season schedule was a portent of doom. One transformative takeover later - not to mention a change of manager - and the Magpies are hoping to spend their summer perched in the top ten.

Eddie Howe's side travel to Turf Moor in a celebratory mood following an exuberant sign-off in the North-East at Arsenal's expense last Monday. There are disadvantaged by the absences of Joe Willock and Jonjo Shelvey in midfield but with Bruno Guimaraes expertly pulling the strings and Callum Wilson back fit they pose a serious threat to Burnley's top-flight survival.

The Clarets will no doubt look to knock the Brazilian out of his rhythm by deploying the same blood-and-thunder ethos that gained them a point in the Midlands on Thursday. Just don't expect Newcastle - residing third from bottom in the fair play table - to take that lying down.

If a high card-count can be anticipated, the opposite is true of corners. The visitors have posted low numbers even since turning their season around.

Thomas Tuchel, Chelsea.jpg

Chelsea v Watford - Going through the motions

The Blues' passive build-up play for much of their stalemate with Leicester mid-week is an indicator of what we can expect to see at the Bridge, as Thomas Tuchel's men wind down a season of what-ifs and WTFs. A fairly routine run-through of their repertoire was still enough to create plenty of opportunities against the Foxes and the same will apply here, over a Watford collective who just want this campaign to end.

Marcos Alonso deserves a shout-out for two outstanding displays running, as too Reece James for an eighth league assist, but it's a recalled Mason Mount who will likely heavily feature this weekend. The 23-year-old has 29 direct goal involvements in 2021/22.

It is hoped the Hornets do justice to Roy Hodgson's last ever Premier League contest, even if it's just via application. They probably won't.

Crystal Palace v Man United - Reliant on Ronnie

It's been just shy of a fortnight since United last played a competitive fixture, 'competitive' being a generous description of their woeful four-goal surrender at the Amex.

It is then difficult to predict how they will respond to the heavy defeat, a loss that means they now require a victory at Selhurst Park to possibly avoid the ignominy of playing Europa Conference League football next term.

What we do know is that neither Marcus Rashford nor Jadon Sancho have fully recovered from their respective illnesses so are doubts to start. And this means the Reds' attacking impetus once again falls on Cristiano Ronaldo, the aging megastar scoring nine of United's last 12 league goals.

We also know that Palace have held their own in this fixture in recent times, twice triumphing at Old Trafford and eking out a goalless affair in South London last year. A similar outcome is hardly inconceivable here.

Back under 4.5 corners for Newcastle, Chelsea to win by exactly three goals, and under 2.5 goals for Palace v United @

15.0

Leicester v Southampton - Saints taking it easy

Southampton's spiralling fortunes hit a new low on Tuesday evening with a craven performance at home to Liverpool.

Ahead of the game, Ralph Hasenhuttl banged the drum and the Austrian had every right to be pugnacious, aware that his side had benefitted from ten days preparation, a period that additionally saw his injured troops report back to duty. In front of a full St Marys' this was Southampton's chance to sign off a disappointing campaign in style, against a usually fearsome foe who were - to use old-fashioned parlance - playing their reserves.

It confounded therefore to see the Saints construct only four attempts on goal and what's more, commit to a low-block throughout. Once again it was apparent that here was a team that had long run its race, their spikes gathering dust in a cupboard.

Leicester look an altogether better proposition with Jamie Vardy back sharp and James Maddison enjoying an upsurge in form. They will likely encounter the minimum of resistance

Liverpool v Wolves - History repeating

Liverpool have the same final-day opponents they faced in 2018, with the circumstances identical at Anfield.

Back then, as now, the Reds needed to win, then place their faith in the unlikely event of Manchester City dropping points in order to secure a league title and to that end four years ago Jurgen Klopp's men mustered a 2-0 victory. It was however anything but a straightforward win, with Wolves carving out two golden opportunities, determined as they were to complete a successful campaign with a flourish.

Will Bruno Lage's side offer up the same level of fighting spirit this Sunday? Recent evidence suggests not, with just one win in eight - and no clean sheets - intimating instead that this is a spent squad coasting to the finish line.

Having been widely praised all season for their organisation and parsimony that is poor to say the least.

Norwich v Tottenham - Top four on a plate

Not even Tottenham can 'Spursy' this up, can they?

After racking up 23 points from a possible 30 down the home straight, Antonio Conte's men now require just a point or better at Carrow Road to secure Champions League football for only the sixth time in their history.

It is a task made almost uncomplicated by the timid nature of their opponents. The sorry Canaries have won only once since late January and all season long they have conceded 2.1 goals-per-game. To put that into perspective, Norwich have been breached considerably more in the second half in 2021/22 than their final-day opponents have in total.

Such figures will delight Harry Kane and Son Heung-min, the duo being in formidable form. Between them, the prolific pair have been involved in 34 direct goal involvements in their last 15 games.

Back Jamie Vardy to have 2+ shots on target, over 2.5 goals for Liverpool v Wolves, and Son to assist @

8.0

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Stephen Tudor avatar

Stephen Tudor

Stephen Tudor has written extensively about football and sports betting for well over a decade.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

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