Northern Ireland v Romania: Back another draw for the Irish

Northern Ireland v Romania
Wednesday 18 November, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports

A less than magnificent seven for Baraclough

It is now seven games in charge for Ian Baraclough and he is yet to win inside of 90 minutes. His team did beat Bosnia on penalties, but it didn't end up mattering as they lost the Play-off final to Slovakia last Thursday.

The manager made eight changes to his team against Austria on Sunday, and he also changed the formation too. It seemed to work for the most part, as while they were beaten 2-1 in the end, the Irish led until the 81st minute, before conceding two goals in the final 10 minutes.

It will be interested to see what Baraclough does for this match, as the main reason he would have rotated his team would have been to avoid playing the same players three times in a week.

Rested Romanians have an edge

Romania had the weekend off, as their fixture with Norway was postponed due to a positive Covid-19 case in the Norwegian camp. The likelihood is that they will be awarded the points, which would actually make this fixture a dead-rubber.

Mirel Rădoi's side are already three points clear of Northern Ireland, so that would become six if they do get given the win. However because Austria already have 12, they wouldn't be able to catch them for a chance of promotion.

Given that the Romanians have had the benefit of not playing at the weekend, the manager will have no issues in starting his best available XI, which will likely be in their 4-3-3 formation. Denis Alibec or Reading's George Puscas will lead the forward line.

Confusion in the Group

Whatever UEFA decide to do with the points from the postponed game in League B Group 1, Romania know that a point at Windsor Park will be enough to ensure their survival.

The reverse fixture finished all-square, in what was Baraclough's first match in charge since the departure of Michael O'Neil. The hosts should have won that though, they led 1-0 at half-time and the visitors were down to 10 men, but a late Gavin Whyte goal rescued a point for Norn Iron.

On the Betfair Exchange, Northern Ireland are 3.211/5 for the win, with the draw at 3.259/4 and Romania the favourites at 2.56/4.

Another draw looks like a strong possibility to me. It's a result that would be fine for the visitors, and I just can't see the Irish having the strength to actually win the game.

Don't bet on goals

Fewer than three goals is expected to be the outcome according to the betting markets, as Under 2.5 is currently trading at around the 1.645/8 mark, with the Over at 2.47/5.

Northern Ireland's game in Austria did have three goals in it on Sunday, but all three came quite late, and other than a mauling at the hands of Norway, all of their other matches under Baraclough have ended with Unders backers collecting.

Romania scored five in a 5-3 friendly victory over Belarus last week, but prior to that they failed to find the net against Austria and Norway.

Under 2.5 is definitely the call, but it isn't worth backing as a single.

Same Game Multi

On the Betfair Sportsbook I have combined my thoughts on this fixture into a Same Game Multi that works out at odds of 5.34217/50.

It is a treble of The Draw, Under 2.5 Match Goals, and Under 0.5 First Half Goals.

Key Opta Stat

Northern Ireland have scored five goals in their nine UEFA Nations League matches to date, never winning or scoring more than once in a single match (D1 L8).