Newcastle got away with it at Spurs last weekend but it could be a different story against Burnley on Saturday, says Dave Tindall...
"Sean Dyche's men have netted in their last five away games, the goal count in those matches reading: 2, 2, 1, 1, 1. That stretch included a pair of 1-0 wins."
Newcastle v Burnley
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
Mixed takes on Newcastle
On the face of it, the early part of season has gone okay for Newcastle.
They won their Premier League opener, got a point at Spurs, new striker Callum Wilson has bagged a couple of goals and they've come through three rounds of the Carabao Cup to reach the last eight.
Overall: three wins, two draws and a single defeat.
And now the downside.
Their cup wins came against Blackburn, Morecambe and Newport and they only beat the latter - a League Two side - on penalties.
In addition, they got away with it big time to snatch a point at Spurs. They hadn't even had a shot on target until Wilson slotted home a highly-controversial injury-time penalty.
Plus, there's the stat that they've scored with all three of their shots on target so far in the Premier League this season.
Either they're incredibly efficient or hardly creating anything.
Clarets off to slow start
It seems easier to make a more straightforward analysis of Burnley's start.
They've lost both their Premier league games and come into this one after a 3-0 home loss to Manchester City in the Carabao Cup.
Their one win in five was a 2-0 success at Millwall.
However, in their two away games they've scored twice in each. As well as the Millwall win, they bagged two at Leicester.
A shame they conceded four at the King Power but Brendan Rodgers' side are clearly one of the form teams having smashed five past Man City.
In the Premier League, the problem has been putting away chances.
They've created 26 and, with just two scored, their conversion rate is 7.7%. Then again, it's very early days.
Newcastle favourites for first home win
Newcastle are the 2.588/5 favourites to pick up their first three points of the season at St. James' Park.
They managed just six wins at home last season so it's easy to be wary of that price.
Burnley, who managed seven away wins last term, are 3.1511/5 to return to Lancashire with maximum points. The Draw is the outsider of the three at 3.39/4.
Historically, this has been a good fixture for Newcastle. They're unbeaten in their last seven at home against Burnley, winning three and drawing four.
That said, three of the last four have been draws, with February's clash ending goalless.
BTTS market well balanced but Unders clear favourite
In the Both teams to Score market, there's hardly anything in it with 'Yes' trading at 1.991/1 and 'No' at 1.9210/11.
By contrast, the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market is definitely skewed towards the latter which seems right. Under 2.5 is 1.664/6 while Over 2.5 is 2.3411/8.
Newcastle failed to have a shot on goal in their last home match - a 3-0 defeat to Brighton - so it's hard to make a case for Overs here.
In fact, dipping down a goal to Under 1.5 at 32/1 seems a viable option. That would have landed in both games between this pair last season.
Correct score markets may offer best value
It's still hard to have a strong opinion on either side at this stage. But I have a feeling that Burnley could nick this.
I also don't expect many goals so I'm going to focus on a couple of away win scorelines - Burnley 1-0 at 9.617/2 and Burnley 2-0 at 1817/1.
Newcastle are struggling to create while Burnley have shown an ability to score on the road. Sean Dyche's men have netted in their last five away games, the goal count in those matches reading: 2, 2, 1, 1, 1. That stretch included a pair of 1-0 wins and a 2-0 victory.
Finally, I'll have a small cover bet on the 1-1 scoreline at 6.86/1.
Newcastle's Jeff Hendrick scored nine goals in 122 Premier League appearances for Burnley, and he could become just the third player to score for and against the Clarets in the competition after Andre Gray and Danny Ings.
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Dave Tindall's P/L, 2020/21
1pt Burnley 1-0 at 9.6
1pt Burnley 2-0 at 18
0.5pts 1-1 Draw at 6.8