Promotion dream to fade further
Hamburg v Nurnberg
Monday 10 May, 19:30
Live on BT Sport 1
It was an excellent week for our chum Tobias, but it did end on an annoying note in Spain yesterday, as he got the goals he wanted but not quite in the right configuration. A 3-0 win for Valencia over Valladolid sunk his BTTS bet, but he's still got enough money in the kitty for a sangria or two.
We're heading back to northern Germany, because Hamburg are still in with a shot of promotion, but in classic HSV style their form has collapsed at the worst possible time.
Hamburg have failed to win any of their last five games, a run that has seen them slip out of the promotion spots, and a sequence that has cost coach Daniel Thioune his job. Club legend Horst Hrubesch has taken over for the rest of the season, but he hasn't formally coached since an eight-game stint with Germany's women's team in 2018.
Nurnberg won't be pushovers tonight. They have just held promotion contenders Holstein Kiel to a 1-1 draw, and they have lost just one of their last 12 matches.The Franconians are safe from relegation, but there was no sign against Kiel that they are already on the beach. On the road, they have lost just one of their last six, and they held Hamburg to a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture.
Hamburg seem too short to me at 1.625/8 here, especially given that they have won just one of their last five home matches, so let's lay them.
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