Andy Robson has studied Saturday's football and come up with four selections that combine for a 4/15.00 Acca...
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Goals expected in the EFL
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Rangers can win with room to spare
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La Liga leaders can go another game without defeat
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Leg 1 - Swansea v Plymouth - Saturday 15:00
Tip: Both teams to score + Over 2.5 goals @ 8/111.73
Goals are the order of the day at the Swansea.com Stadium on Saturday.
Luke Williams' Swans haven't quite achieved the level of control in their matches that the manager would want. The idea behind the new manager's tactics is to control the matches with possession in order to create chances, and keep a strong defence in place to prevent easy chances on the counter-attack. Neither side of the equation is quite working out as hoped, but the Swans have at least scored in each of their last six at home.
Five of those six matches have seen them concede goals as well though, and Plymouth are primed to be able to take advantage of the looseness of the Swans' defence on the counter-attack. Indeed, it feels as though Swansea's tactics play into the travellers' hands in this aspect. Plymouth are most effective in transition, and, if they can win the ball, this is exactly what they will need to do to get their best chances.
Plymouth have sometimes struggled on the road this season, but they have scored in their last three away games, and, actually have been a consistent goal threat away from home as proven by their xG never falling below 0.5 xG in their last 10 away matches. In essence, this means that they were more likely to score than not in all of their last 10 away matches.
There were signs in their last home match against Southampton that Swansea are going to be entertaining at home under Williams, with over 5 total xG in the match. If anything like that can be repeated here then the nap should land comfortably.
Leg 2 - Tranmere v Crewe - Saturday 15:00
Tip: Both teams to score @ 3/51.60
Crewe Alexandra make the short journey to Merseyside to take on Tranmere Rovers and this game has all the ingredients to be a thriller at Prenton Park in League Two, with both sides fancied to score.
That seems to be a common trend for the hosts as their last five home games have seen both teams find the back of the net while in the same amount of games on the road for Crewe, three of their fixtures have seen the same outcome. Tranmere have plenty of attacking options and have scored 29 goals on home soil in the league this season, at a rate of more than two per game, thanks in part to top scorer Connor Jennings who has nine goals to his name.
However, defensively they have been vulnerable, conceding 19 at the other end. Crewe's away games tend to be very open affairs with a total of 47 goals being scored in their 14 matches on the road, and that's an average of 3.35 per game. They too have plenty of talent in forward areas and their talisman Elliot Nevitt has been in scintillating form of late, scoring in each of his previous three games taking his tally to 10 for the season.
The contributions from the talented Christopher Long and Courtney Baker-Richardson make this Crewe outfit very dangerous offensively, and as a result, they are fancied to grab themselves a goal in this game.
Leg 3 - Rangers v Livingston - Saturday 15:00
Tip: Rangers -1 Handicap @ 1/31.33
The last four occasions that Rangers have met Livingston, the scorelines have been 3-0, 4-0, 4-0 and 2-0 in favour of the Ibrox club. It would be extremely surprising if their domination of the fixture did not continue on Saturday when the sides meet at Ibrox, with the hosts on a four-match winning run and chasing Premiership leaders Celtic intently.
Philippe Clement's men have been the best side in Scotland since he took command in the autumn and have won 11 of their last 12 matches in all competitions, with the exception being a narrow Old Firm loss to Celtic.
At home, meanwhile, they have won all of their six fixtures under the Belgian, all of which were claimed by at least two goals with the exception of the match against third-placed Hearts.
Livingston, by contrast, have not won in the league since October and their midweek draw against Ross County was just the second point they have taken in 15 matches.
Complicating matters for the visitors is the fact that a previously solid defence is starting to creek. They have conceded at least two goals in five of their last six league matches, which spells trouble coming up against a well armed attacking outfit like Rangers.
In four previous matches against the Old Firm clubs this season, David Martindale's side have failed to score a single goal and have conceded 11 times. They have got their shooting boots on in recent weeks, which makes backing Rangers winning to nil more of a gamble, but the hosts should have comfortably too much for their opponents in this one.
Leg 4 - Girona v Real Sociedad - Saturday 20:00
Tip: Girona draw no bet @ 1/21.50
Girona have only lost one of their 22 games this season, with this loss coming against title favourites Real Madrid in September. The hosts have an impressive record at home, winning nine of their 11 home matches. Girona have had a greater share of possession and a higher xG tally than their opponents across their last four home games, despite Michel's side facing tough opponents in Valencia and Atletico.
Real Sociedad have faced three of La Liga's top five teams away from home this season, losing against all three trips to Real Madrid, Atletico and Athletic Bilbao. Across these three fixtures, Real Sociedad have had a lower xG tally thantheir opponents. The visitors have also failed to beat Cadiz, Osasuna and Vallecano on their travels.
Girona have improved considerably since the sides drew earlier this season, and Michel will expect his side to win here. This market offers security if the match ends as a draw, and this bet has won or been voided in ten of Girona's 11 home matches this season.
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