EFL Play-off Finals: Forest can claim promotion but League Two affair too tight to call

Forest's devastating counter can help cover handicap

Huddersfield v Nottm Forest
Sunday, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports

The richest game of football is finally upon us, and there are plenty of reasons to fancy the chances of both sides, even if this seemed a very unlikely Wembley finale back in October.

Huddersfield were among the favourites for relegation, with some foolish EFL podcasters even predicting them for the drop pre-season, but Carlos Corberan's side have been consistently excellent this season and were good value for their third placed finish.

They may not have the star names of their opposition, but this will surely be Lewis O'Brien's final game in the EFL for some time regardless of the result, while Sorba Thomas and Levil Colwill have been two smart acquisitions from somewhat different backgrounds; Boreham Wood and on loan from Chelsea.

For Forest the stakes couldn't be higher, with this the best opportunity they've had to end a 23-year-top flight exile. Brennan Johnson is undoubtedly the star and is destined for the very top, but Steve Cooper has a plenty of other creative forces who have been at the top of their game for him on the journey from 24th to 4th.

It's hard to predict how this game will look, with both teams fairly comfortable both in and out of possession and without being wedded to a certain style of play.

Game state will likely dictate that whoever goes ahead will look to drop in and concede possession, and if it is Forest who do nose in front that could spell trouble for Huddersfield.

Djed Spence will likely have the freedom of the right hand side given the attacking nature of his counterpart Harry Toffiolo, and with the pace and movement of Johnson and the livewire Keinan Davis sure to play some part, Forest could be devastating on the counter as they were in the first leg of the Semi-Final against Sheffield United.

I wouldn't be rushing to back Forest at 23/20, but backing them to cover the -1 at 7/2 could be the smart play given Huddersfield's need to step out if chasing the game which could suit them perfectly.

Spence to register a goal or an assist at 9/2 is another nice angle given the aforementioned match-up with Toffiolo and his clear ball-carrying talent. It's a travesty that he only has four assists to his name this season and is more to do with wasteful strikers than his delivery.

A final play is for aerially dominant defender Tom Lees to have a shot in the game @ 13/10 given Huddersfield's set-piece proficiency.

Lees had a shot in both semi-finals and had a goal disallowed on top of that. He also scored earlier in the season against Forest and will be the man dead-ball expert Thomas is looking for in those situations.

Back Nottingham Forest -1 @ 7/2
Back Djed Spence goal or assist @ 9/2
Back Tom Lees 1+ shots @ 13/10

Don't expect goals in cagey League Two affair

Mansfield v Port Vale
Saturday, 16:00
Live on Sky Sports

These two can't be split in the betting with the pair 5/6 for promotion, and it's hard to see why that would be value for either.

Both Nigel Clough and Darrell Clarke have won promotion from this league before and deserve immense respect, and the sides come into this massive game in decent form.

The angle that could be worth exploiting is the caginess that we can often see in League Two Play-Off Finals. Two of the last three have ended 0-0 in normal time, with goals for Tranmere and Morecamve in extra-time proving decisive.

In between those two ties we had Northampton's 4-0 demolition of Exeter, but that equates to just one of the last six teams to have played in this game having scored in normal time, so the value play here could be just to stick with the trend given what is at stake.

BTTS no is 20/23, and the 0-0 is 13/2 both of which look fair value. Maybe the strongest bet of the lot is for the score to be 0-0 at HT at 31/20 as both teams ensure that they aren't the first to make a mistake.

Back BTTS No @ 20/23
Back 0-0 @ 13/2
Back U0.5 1st half goals @ 31/20