Copa Libertadores: German Cano to sprinkle magic against Sporting Cristal

• Athletico head to Peru full of confidence

• Racing face Chilean debutants lacking strikers

• Boca can frustrate Venezuelan minnows

We're finally back. The near eight-month long tournament begins this week and I can't wait to feast upon the action. There are many questions to be answered.

Will Flamengo be able to win back-to-back-to-back Libertadores titles? Can Palmeiras bounce back despite key exits? Or will the continent be graced by a new winner?

We have a while to wait before we find out, but with the group stage about to begin let me try and find you some value.

Surprisingly, all 16 matches are priced at odds-on for there to be under 2.5 goals. Not exactly the most enticing stat to pull you back into the 2023 edition, but I'm here to explain why that is (partially) wrong.

There are also only two home favourites across the board and, as the group stage is a marathon, I'm approaching with caution in this year's curtain raisers.

First up, a trip to Peru...

Athletico to carry on fine run of form

Alianza Lima v Athletico PR
Tuesday 4 April, 23:00

We start with last year's finalists, who have seen a change in manager since their 1-0 defeat to Flamengo. Former-Brazil manager Felipe Scolari has retired and handed the baton over to his assistant Paulo Turra.

This is his first role in management, but Scolari's trusted number two has been by his side at Palmeiras, Cruzeiro, Gremio and Guangzhou Evergrande.

This may be his first major role on his own, but Turra has learned from the best and, with his side 17 games unbeaten including winning their last eight, Athletico PR are in a strong position.

That run also includes 10 clean sheets, and have gone over 300 minutes since they last had to pick the ball out of their net.

With former Manchester City midfielder Fernandinho pulling the strings in the middle, and with Brazil's next young prospect Vitor Roque leading the line, Athletico PR will fancy themselves to go deep into the tournament.

Their opponents may be strong domestically but they struggle in this competition. Alianza Lima haven't won a Libertadores home match since 2015 and last year lost five and drew one of their six group matches.

The Peruvian champions may dominate in the Primera Division, but there's a huge gulf in class when they step into the Libertadores.

However, you have to go back to 2002 the last time Alianza Lima last by three goals on home soil, and I'm taking a chance on Athletico PR winning by exactly one goal at 2.608/5 and by exactly two goals at 6.05/1 for some extra value.

Racing's superiority should be telling

Nublense v Racing Club
Thursday 6^th April, 01:00

Racing Club won not one but two domestic trophies last campaign, and the Argentine outfit head into the Libertadores full of confidence.

A major blow for Racing was losing last year's top goalscorer Enzo Copetti to MLS side Charlotte. Nevertheless, the club have started life well in the Primera Division and on paper are levels above their Chilean opponents.

With Copetti leaving, the responsibility to lead the charge has fallen to Matias Rojas, who has stepped up and scored five in his last five matches for both club and country.

The left-footed creative midfielder takes free kicks and penalties but is more than capable of producing the goods from open play.

Racing play with an attacking 4-2-3-1 formation, and with Rojas at the heart of it, Nublense may not be able to cope with Racing's attacking talent.

Nublense debut in the Libertadores but will be without last season's two top goalscorers. Having failed to replace them, manager Jaime Garcia has been honest in his assessment heading into the Libertadores, expressing he has no choice to prioritise domestic competitions.

Using the Bet Builder option, backing Racing Club double chance as well as over 1.5 match goals creates a nice 1.705/7 bet to kickstart proceedings in Group A.

Can anyone stop Cano?

Sporting Cristal v Fluminense
Thursday 6^th April, 01:30

Fluminense's German Cano continues to prove that age is just a number. The now 35-year-old finished as Serie A's top goalscorer with 25 goals in 38 appearances last campaign. In 2023, he's already on 14 in just 11 matches.

This includes four in one match against Volta Redonda, a hat-trick against Audax, as well as three braces in a row - one of which was from the halfway line against Vasco. It's safe to say the Argentine is in frightening form.

With Cano's form in mind, it's difficult to know how Sporting Cristal are going to stop him.

The Peruvians have impressed on home soil during the qualifiers, noticeably knocking out Argentina's Huracan, and the addition of Brazilian centre-back Ignacio da Silva Oliveira from Bahia has tightened up their back-line.

Sporting Cristal are very poor on the road in this competition, and I'll be keen to revisit them on their travels, but Fluminense could be a dark horse in this competition.

The first round of any competition can spring an upset, but that's also reflected in the prices, and I can't ignore Fluminense at 1.804/5 purely down to the fact Cano is in the form of his life.

Monagas to be silenced at home

Monagas v Boca Juniors
Friday 7 April, 01:00

We finish our South American journey with a trip to Venezuela, as six-time winners Boca Juniors face one of the tournament minnows.

Monagas are expected to finish bottom of Group F and are 276.0275/1 to lift the Libertadores. I won't be advising you place that bet.

What I will advise is simple. Monagas haven't been in this competition since 2018, when they lost five matches and drew one, scoring just five which included two own goals.

This time round Monagas will go to battle without last season's top goalscorer Aquiles Ocanto, who scored 13 league goals in 2022. It's worth pointing out in the Primera Division Monagas only scored 21 goals in 15 home matches. Boca should have no issues in Caracas.

Yet Boca aren't known for making it easy for themselves at the best of times, which is why I'm steering away from their skinny 1.501/2 odds to win.

Instead, both teams to not score at 1.705/7 grabs my attention. With six clean sheets this year, which includes four 0-0s, I'm hoping we can secure another winning tip even if Boca leave Caracas frustrated.