Burnley v Aston Villa Tips: Visitors to make it win number six on the road

Aston Villa manager - Dean Smith
Can Dean Smith take Villa from relegation candidates to European football?

It's the battle of the Claret and Blues at Turf Moor on Wednesday and Paul Robinson is expecting the team in their away kit to come out on top.

The visitors have excelled on their travels this season, already winning at Fulham, Leicester, Arsenal, Wolves and West Brom.

Back Aston Villa @ 2.0621/20

Burnley v Aston Villa
Wednesday 27 January, 18:00
Live on BT Sport

A great week for Burnley

Burnley have enjoyed a fabulous week having beaten Liverpool at Anfield and dismantled Fulham in the FA Cup. They return to Turf Moor on Wednesday looking to take another scalp, on a ground where they have won three of their last five.

Following a slow start to the campaign, Sean Dyche's men have really stepped it up a notch, and at the start of the week, they are in 15th place - seven points clear of the relegation zone.

Dyche isn't a man to rotate his first team very much - he doesn't have the strength-in-depth to do so - so the likely only change from Anfield will be Erik Pieters in for the injured Charlie Taylor.

Villa back on track with Newcastle win

After a Boxing Day victory, Villa didn't have the greatest set of results, but they put in some good performances throughout a tough fixture list, and they returned to winning ways by beating Newcastle on Saturday.

Before a ball is kicked in the Premier League this week, the Villans are in eighth place, but they have games in hand over all bar Everton above them. For instance, they are just five points behind Liverpool, having played two fewer matches.

Like his counterpart, Dean Smith isn't one to rotate his starting XI too heavily. John McGinn is back from suspension so he will slot into the midfield alongside, Douglas Luiz. The only decision Smith will have to make is who will make up the three behind Ollie Watkins. Jack Grealish is nailed on, and the other two slots will be filled by two of Barkley, El Ghazi and Traore.

Points to head back to the Midlands

The visitors have excelled on their travels this season, already winning at Fulham, Leicester, Arsenal, Wolves and West Brom. They should have enough strength to join Southampton, Spurs, Chelsea and Man United as winners at Turf Moor this term.

On the Betfair Exchange they are trading at around the 2.0621/20 mark for the win - a result which they achieved on their visit here last season.

The draw is available to back at 3.613/5, but Burnley have only shared the points once at home this term, and the same can be said for Villa, on the road.

The outsider of the party is the home win at 4.03/1, but it just doesn't tempt me, despite the Burnley's recent good run. Historically, they haven't been able to maintain a high level of results for long, and while Villa's first team have only played twice since New Year's Day, the Clarets have played five times.

Low-scoring affair expected

It's a tight market when it comes to Over/Under 2.5 Goals, with little to separate the two outcomes. The Under is the marginal favourite at 1.9620/21, with the Over at 2.0421/20.

Stats wise, a low-scoring affair is fancied. Half a dozen of Burnley's eight home fixtures have ended with two goals or less, with five of those six finishing with just a single goal. The two that went Over only had three goals in them.

For Villa, three of their opening four away games saw Over 2.5 backers collect, but in their five since, only two have followed suit.

At the prices, I definitely think that Under 2.5 Goals is worth a bet.

Same Game Multi

Aston Villa are the kings of the corner this season so I am putting a Same Game Multi together on the Sportsbook that is as follows.

An away win, Villa -2 Corners on the Handicap and Jack Grealish to have 1+ Shot on Target at odds of just over 8/1.

Key Opta Stat

Turf Moor has seen fewer goals scored than any other Premier League ground this season, with just 13 goals being scored in Burnley's eight home league games this season (F5 A8). However, none of these games have finished goalless.

2020/21 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 45pts
Returned: 47.89pts
P/L: +2.89pts

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