Football Bet of the Day: All happening in Amsterdam

Get set for an entertaining scrap

Ajax v ADO Den Haag
Sunday 21 March, 19:00

We had late drama at Real Valladolid last night, but not the kind that was any good to us. Sevilla goalkeeper Yassine Bono scored a last-gasp equaliser in a 1-1 draw, but that was too little, too late from our point of view. We needed Sevilla to win, and this is turning into a "vote of confidence" style run of form.

We hope for better news in the Netherlands, because the leaders Ajax are up against ADO Den Haag, and I've found a nice little wager on the Sportsbook that will fit quite neatly into how I think the match will play out.

Ajax are top of the table, and through to the quarter-finals of the Europa League thanks to a fine 2-0 win over Young Boys of Berne. Erik ten Hag's men have won 16 of their last 17 competitive matches, and they have scored at least twice in 14 of those victories.

Conversely, ADO Den Haag are in deep relegation trouble, second from bottom and seven points adrift of safety. They have only won twice all season in the league, and they have leaked 55 goals in 26 matches.

We can back Over 2.5 Goals, Over 2.5 Cards and Over 5.5 Corners at 2.255/4 on the Sportsbook, and I think that's an eminently possible outcome. 16 of Ajax's last 25 games have featured at least three goals, and at their Amsterdam home, nine of the last ten have seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet land.

Then we look at the corners. Ajax's league games average 10.36 corners, which is the third-highest figure in the league. ADO's games aren't far behind, with an average of 9.77 total match corners.

Finally, the cards. ADO Den Haag have picked up 42 bookings this season in the top flight, and only Vitesse have a worse record. Ajax are at the other end of the fair play table, but they have picked up at least one booking in four of their last five league games. If they contribute a booking here, we only need a couple of cautions for ADO players to make that part of the bet land.