West Brom v Wolves: Back low-scoring away win

• Baggies defensively strong at home

• But Wolves kept out in only 3 of 21 PL games

• Visitors can edge through to next round

• Read about Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

West Brom v Wolves
Sunday 28 January, 11:45
Live on ITV1

Black Country derbies have been few and far between in recent times - this will be only the third in 12 years.

The two most-recent both came during the fanless, COVID season so supporters of both sides should be straining at the leash to pump up the atmosphere inside the Hawthorns on Sunday.

Baggies strong at home

Whether they witness a memorable game is open to question.

West Brom (4.03/1) sit fifth in the Championship and have forged a strong record on home soil, winning eight and losing just one of their last 11 here in all competitions.

Since manager Carlos Corberan arrived in October 2022, no Championship side has won more home points.

But against the better teams, they've been content to sit back and soak up pressure. They had just 38% of the ball when beating Leeds at the Hawthorns last month and 41% in a 2-1 home loss to Leicester. They also saw less of the ball than their opponents when beating Ipswich.

Okay Yokuslu should return to play his part in a defensive-midfield role. Rising star Tom Fellows is another expected to come back in Corberan's starting XI having missed last week's defeat at Norwich due to illness, but Daryl Dike and Adam Reach have both been ruled out.

Wolves on the up

Wolves (2.0621/20) are also a side who tend not to dominate possession - they sit at 47% across the Premier League season so far.

They are impressive on the counter attack but may be denied opportunities to break here.

They remain without top scorer Hwang Hee-chan, still away at the Asian Cup. In addition, Joao Gomes remains suspended but at least Rayan Ait-Nouri has returned from the Africa Cup of Nations after Algeria's early exit.

Wolves are unbeaten in six in all competitions and, after a poor start to the season, have really picked up under Gary O'Neil. They are up to 11th in the Premier League and, given that position, O'Neil is promising a strong side for this contest.

The Old Gold haven't won at the Hawthorns sin their last 11 visits but this will be the first time since 1949 that the pair have met when in different divisions and one would suggest the gap between mid-table in the top flight and play-off spots in the second tier is rather large these days.

Go low on goals

While O'Neil has turned Wolves into a more free-scoring side than his predecessors, the Baggies can be expected to make like difficult for them and the visitors may well be made to dig in, just as they did at Brighton last time out, drawing 0-0. The early kick-off time also tends to produce low-goal games.

The hosts have a 50% clean sheet rate at home this season which helps show their defensive strength. Cedric Kipre and Kyle Bartley have formed a good partnership at the back, helping West Brom to the third-best defensive record in the Championship.

However, Wolves' extra quality should fine a way through at some point with only three sides keeping them goalless so far in the Premier League this season.

While far from convinced, I'm tempted by a low-scoring Wolves win and to get both the 1-0 and 2-0 scorelines on side, the suggestion is to back Wolves and under 2.5 goals at 4.77/2.

Bet Builder suggestions

For those putting Bet Builders together, under 2.5 goals is at 20/231.87, while some player props options could help bump your price up.

Yokuslu has had 1+ shot in 10 of his last 12 games - and one of the failures saw him limp off in the first half.

Meanwhile, centre-back Kipre has committed 1+ foul in eight of his last nine starts.

A derby often means cards and both teams to pick up over 1.5 can be backed at 5/61.84.

Thomas Bramall is a decent referee for cards - he's third-best in this season's Premier League - but it should be noted that historically this fixture hasn't been great for card backers, while the FA Cup tends to see fewer cards than its league counterparts.

Finally, for those wanting to side with West Brom in some way, I had to mention one big-priced suggestion.

The excitement around the aforementioned Fellows is building and the 20-year-old has scored twice in his three starts this month.

He's also a proper local lad, having first joined the club at under-10s level.
He'll be fully aware of what this fixture means to the fans and so should be busting a gut.

A double on Fellows to score and be carded pays 23/124.00.

Opta fact

Brandon Thomas-Asante has been involved in six goals in his last eight home appearances for West Brom in all competitions, scoring five and assisting one.

More FA Cup: Read Kevin Hatchard on Newport v Man Utd!

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