Saturday FA Cup Tips: Mateta to score for Palace, goals at Bournemouth and low cards at Man City

• Mateta and Palace in great form

• Bournemouth and Wolves to serve up goals

• Lack of cards at the Etihad Stadium

• Our Cheltenham offer is live! Get a completely free bet every weekend until the Festival

Betfair Saturday Superboost

We look set for an entertaining FA Cup fifth round tie on the south coast on Saturday when Bournemouth host Premier League rivals Wolves, and following last week's winning superboost featuring Matheus Cunha, we're repeating the same boost this week.

Cunha has registered 19 shots on target in his last 18 games and he's 4/91.44 to register at least one shot on target on Saturday. But there's no need to take the 4/91.44, just click on the odds in the below bet banner to be directed to the pre-loaded betslip where you can back Cunha at the super-boosted price of 1/12.00.

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Crystal Palace v Millwall (Saturday, 12:15)

Crystal Palace are in great form and should fancy their chances of progressing here against Championship opposition in Millwall and are priced accordingly at 3/101.30. I've been banging the drum about Palace a few weeks now and they haven't faltered at all. Since starting the season with eight winless games, the following 19 games has seen them collect the fourth most points in the league - only Liverpool, Arsenal and Nottingham Forest have picked up more. It's fully deserved too with expected points in-line with their 33 actual points accrued. If we look at them over the last 10 games, they've picked up the third most points with Arsenal only gaining one more than Palace's 20.

Key to their success recently is the form of striker Jean-Philippe Mateta. He's got nine goals in his last 13 games, including strikes against both Arsenal and Chelsea. And he has a habit of scoring against lower league opposition in the domestic cups. In August he scored a brace at home to Norwich in the League Cup, last season he bagged a hat-trick away at Plymouth in the same competition and he scored away against Millwall last time these two met in January 2022. Given Palace's favouritism here, they are just 4/71.57 to score Over 1.5 goals yet we can get Mateta at odds-against in 11/102.11 to score anytime.

Bournemouth v Wolves (Saturday, 15:00)

This tie is a repeat of last weekends league match where Wolves ran out 1-0 winners. I don't want to read too much into that game as Bournemouth were reduced to 10 men after just half an hour following Illia Zabarnyi's red card for what was deemed a dangerous challenge on Wolves' Rayan Ait-Nouri. Instead let's focus on what we know long-term about both of these sides this season. Goals.

Wolves are the big drivers here. 22 of their 31 matches across all competitions have seen three or more goals (71%), including their only cup tie against fellow Premier League opposition in Brighton where they lost 3-2 at the Amex stadium. Away from home that 71% strike rate increases to 76% with 13 of 17 matches across league and cup seeing Over 2.5 goals. Another angle to consider is that if we remove the matches with red cards, where often games become one sided, it's actually 21 of their 27 games that have seen three or more goals equating to 78% or odds of 1.282/7.

Bournemouth's matches aren't quite as hectic but even so 13 of their last 20 matches across all competitions have seen three plus goals - 65% or odds of 1.538/15. We can get 1.705/7 on Over 2.5 goals here.

Man City v Plymouth (Saturday, 17:45)

Can Plymouth cause another giant killing in the FA Cup? They were 11/112.00 to beat Liverpool at Home Park in the last round having also upset Brentford at the same odds in round three. This time around they are more than three times the price at a whopping 35/136.00! Any takers? Man City have lost 14 of their last 28 matches! And you can even take the safer option at 20/121.00 for them to qualify meaning your bet is still live if the match finishes in a draw and goes to extra-time.

However, given the list of sides to beat Manchester City this season reads Liverpool (x2), Real Madrid (x2), Arsenal, PSG, Aston Villa, Juventus, Tottenham (x2), Sporting, Bournemouth, Brighton and Man Utd, I'm not going to suggest backing Plymouth here. Given Man City put eight past Salford in the third round, I'm leaning towards City winning comfortably as the odds on them -2 handicap suggest at 4/61.67.

Therefore as it's a cup competition and there's a big disparity in ability and therefore potentially the result, there's a good chance of a low carding game. Only eight teams have collected fewer yellow cards than Plymouth in the second tier and in the Premier League only Brentford have picked up fewer yellow cards than Man City. Going back to 2019, City have played six home games in the FA Cup against lower league opposition that have seen just 10 cards at an average of only 1.67 per-game. Plymouth's trip to Brentford saw zero cards in that game.

The referee is Craig Pawson who has take charge of only one cup game this season and it was an enormous one with it being the second leg of the League Cup semi between Liverpool v Tottenham at Anfield with the hosts trailing 1-0, but Pawson produced zero cards. At this stage last season he took charge of a similar tie when Liverpool took on Southampton and he gave just one yellow card. We can back under 2.5 cards at 8/111.73.

Now read Ste Tudor on Saturday's FA Cup ties here.