Middlesbrough v Aston Villa: Back the home side in 5/1 'cupset'

• Emery history suggests Villa team changes

• Boro have strong record in big Championship games

• Upset worth backing at around 5/16.00

• Read about Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

Middlesbrough v Aston Villa
Saturday 6 January, 17:30
Live on BBC One and Betfair Live Video

Aston Villa sit second in the Premier League but, in this day and age, should they really be just 1.68/13 to win away to a Championship side in the third round of the FA Cup?

OK, if they put out a full-strength side, Villa should be able to see off mid-table Boro. But that's a big if.

We all know about how the top-flight teams often see the FA Cup as an excuse to rest players these days. It makes betting on the competition a potential minefield.

Waiting for the team announcements is the safe thing to do but by then potential for grabbing some value may have gone.

Villa changes on the cards

The key here for me is looking at how Villa boss Unai Emery has previously approached FA Cup ties - and that has involved weakened sides.

He's taken charge of only three and the two against EFL clubs have seen eight and six changes made.

Last season, when Villa hosted Stevenage at this stage of the competition, only three players kept their place from the previous league game and a 2-1 upset duly unfolded. It meant Villa remain winless in this competition since 2016, a fact that has been ringing in their ears in the build-up to this one.

While some will suggest Emery will learn from that loss, it's hard not to see a similar approach given Villa are now genuine top-four (if not title) contenders and also have a European campaign ongoing - and we know the Spaniard's record is Europe is outstanding.

That theory certainly brings Boro into play at 5.95/1 on the Exchange.

Boro getting players back

They may sit 12th in the Championship but that puts them just four points outside the play-off positions.

The team-news issue with them is the fact that they have a Carabao Cup semi-final with Chelsea coming up in midweek so the potential for them holding a few back is clear.

Boss Michael Carrick does have a few injuries clearing up though and a cut a relaxed figure when speaking to the media on Thursday.

Unsurprisingly, given he's a former Manchester United star, he spoke about extra cup games being "what we want" and "a real plus". He added his team selection was about "finding the right balance".

Boro do lose Riley McGree and Sammy Silvera to the Asia Cup and Seny Dieng to the Africa Cup of Nations - Villa are without Bertrand Traore for the same reason - but Hayden Hackney, Matt Crooks and Emmanuel Latte Lath are all back to fitness. Finn Aziz, currently a Villa player, is a potential new recruit in time for the game too.

Boro look tempting

At the prices, Boro look tempting to spring the upset.

They've got up for big games at the Riverside this season with three of the top five - Leicester, Southampton and West Brom - already beaten here.

Carrick's men have also been solid performers in the League Cup, albeit they are yet to face Premier League opponents in that competition.

Laying Villa on the Exchange is another approach worth considering.

Bet Builder options

In terms of other potential angles, going low on goals could prove worthwhile.

While Villa's games have been goal-laden this season, Boro home games have rarely been goal-fests.

Nine of their 13 league games at the Riverside have seen under 2.5 goals, with five of them reaching half time goalless. You can get 2.427/5 and 23/103.30 respectively about those outcomes unfolding again.

For those who feel Boro have potential but Villa will ultimately prevail, backing Boro to score first may be for you.

Despite their lofty position in the top flight, Villa have actually conceded the first goal in nine of their 20 games. Boro are 2/13.00 to net first in this contest.

In the player props markets, Boubacar Kamara is a player I do expect to start - unlike many at this time of year he's had a good rest thanks to a three-match ban - and it's worth noting he's had 1+ shot in five of his last seven games. At 10/111.91 for a repeat, he has potential.

Diego Carlos, more of a doubtful starter, is 4/91.44 to commit at least one foul, something he's managed in seven of his last nine appearances.

Opta fact

Since beating Wycombe Wanderers in a third round replay in January 2016, Aston Villa have lost each of their last eight matches in the FA Cup. No side has ever lost nine in a row in the competition while playing in the top two divisions.

More FA Cup tips: Seven bets for Saturday's games!