Fulham are having a terrific season, and Kevin Hatchard thinks their FA Cup dream can survive against Leeds United...
Fulham v Leeds United
Tuesday 28 February, 19:45
Live on BBC One
Fulham have already achieved main aim
It says a lot about how far Marco Silva has taken Fulham in a short time that they were disappointed with Friday night's 1-1 draw with Wolves. The weekend's results left the Cottagers in the top six, with a healthy 39 points in the bank. Even if the west Londoners lost every single game from here on in, relegation seems almost impossible.
Fulham are ahead of Chelsea and Liverpool, and remarkably they are only six points adrift of Tottenham in the chase for Champions League spots. Silva's team has put together an unbeaten run of six games in league and cup, and they have won three of their last six matches at Craven Cottage.
With league safety surely secured, Fulham at least have the option of pushing for a deep run in the FA Cup. Silva's approach to the competition has been intriguing - he has shuffled his pack significantly, but key players like Joao Palhinha and Andreas Pereira have featured.
It will be interesting to see if Israeli winger Manor Solomon is given the chance to extend his fine form - the on-loan Shakhtar Donetsk player has scored three goals in his last three games after working his way back from a knee injury. Top scorer Aleksandar Mitrovic is struggling with a thigh problem, while Tom Cairney and Neeskens Kebano are out.
Gracia trying to bring calm after the chaos
Leeds United don't tend to do anything dull or straightforward. The emotionally charged era of Marcelo Bielsa (the man they call El Loco) brought a long-awaited promotion and some fabulous performances in the Premier League, but the club got twitchy during a big injury crisis last term and booted the popular Argentinean.
Bielsa's replacement Jesse Marsch brought his Red Bull-flavoured chaosball to Elland Road, and kept the team up by a tiny margin. Having then been provided with the tools he wanted (Rasmus Kristensen, Tyler Adams, Brenden Aaronson and Maxi Wöber had all worked with the American before), Marsch was then sacked after a poor run of results that didn't always match performances.
The subsequent search for a replacement was hugely embarrassing - Arne Slot stayed at Feyenoord, Andoni Iraola remained with Rayo Vallecano, and the floating of a possible move for failed Ajax coach Alfred Schreuder caused a social media backlash.
Enter stage left, Javi Gracia. The former Watford and Valencia boss won't bounce around on the touchline with intensity, and he won't look to bring disorder and breakneck speed to every game. Gracia is an experienced relegation-battle, and while he hasn't always succeeded in a varied managerial career, he is probably the sort of short-term contrast Leeds needed after getting themselves into a mess.
A 1-0 win over Southampton was a good start, as Junior Firpo's scuffed late winner took the Whites out of the dropzone in what is becoming a fascinating race to avoid relegation. How seriously the Spanish coach will take the FA Cup remains to be seen, but he did manage to take Watford to Wembley in 2019 (they lost 6-0 to Manchester City). Rodrigo is sidelined, and there are doubts over Pascal Struijk and Luis Sinisterra.
Cottagers are fair favourites
Fulham have already beaten Leeds in an entertaining clash this season, winning 3-2 at Elland Road, and their price of 2.26/5 in the Match Odds market looks attractive.
Leeds will surely prioritise league points, and their only win away from home in the last nine attempts was at EFL club Accrington Stanley in the third round of the FA Cup. Their only clean sheet on the road in that spell was a 0-0 draw at Newcastle United.
Solomon mining goals, and it could continue
It remains to be seen whether the in-form Manor Solomon will start this game, but if he does, he is a very healthy 5.04/1 in the To Score market on the Sportsbook.
If you are looking for a Bet Builder, wait for the Shot On Target markets to emerge, and maybe combine Fulham to qualify (there'll be no replay, the tie must be decided on the night) with Solomon and Wilfried Gnonto to have a shot on target each. Gnonto averages 0.66 shots on target per game in the Premier League, and is an explosive young player.