FA Cup Opta Stats: Saturday's best bets, bet builders and upsets

• Tips for every FA Cup third round tie on Saturday

• Get tips for potential upsets at big prices

• Cherries and Villan back in all-Premier League ties 

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FA Cup 3rd round upsets tips

Borehamwood v Burton: Back non-league hosts

Saturday 10 January, 15:00

The Opta Stat:

Borehamwood have won their last two FA Cup ties this season both 3-0, beating Crawley in the first round and Newport in the second round. Since the creation of the Football League in 1888, there hasn't been a single non league team who've won three FA Cup games in a row (first round onwards) by a margin of 3+ goals each time (excl. void matches). 

Betfair Bet: Back Borehamwood @ 11/102.11

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Burnley v Millwall: Back Lions to test Premier League strugglers

Saturday 10 January, 15:00

The Opta Stat:

Burnley have lost each of their last three FA Cup ties as a Premier League side, losing to Bournemouth in the fifth round in 2020-21, then in the third round to Huddersfield in 2021-22 and Tottenham Hotspur in 2023-24. 

Betfair Bet: Back Millwall and Draw @ 1/12.00

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Sheffield Wednesday v Brentford: Back Owls to KO Bees

Saturday 10 January, 15:00

The Opta Stat:

Brentford have lost each of their last three FA Cup third round ties, including a 1-0 defeat to Plymouth Argyle last season, who were bottom of the Championship at the time.

Betfair Bet: Back Sheffield Wednesday @ 10/111.00

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Cambridge v Birmingham: Back Harris to weave Cup magic

Saturday 10 January, 17:45
Live on TNT 6

The Opta Stat:

This will be Cambridge manager Neil Harris' seventh home FA Cup match against a team from a higher division - he has won four of his previous six (D1 L1), though lost his most recent with Gillingham against Leicester in January 2023. 

Betfair Bet: Back Cambridge +1 @ 1/12.00

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Grimsby v Weston-super-Mare: Back a Cup shock at 7/1

Saturday 10 January, 17:45
Live on TNT 5

The Opta Stat:

Grimsby Town have only progressed from one of their last six FA Cup third round ties, though that was their most recent third round game in 2022-23, beating Burton Albion 1-0.

Betfair Bet: Back Weston-super-Mare to qualify @ 7/18.00

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Saturday's other FA Cup best bets

Cheltenham v Leicester: Back Foxes to make no mistake

Saturday 10 January, 12:15
Live on TNT 7

The Opta Stat:

Leicester have won their last four FA Cup third round ties against sides from a lower division, scoring 13 goals and conceding just two since losing 2-1 to Newport in 2018-19. 

Betfair Bet: Back Leicester -1 @ 6/42.50

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Everton v Sunderland: Back Toffees to progress

Saturday 10 January, 12:15
Live on TNT 5

The Opta Stat:

Sunderland have been eliminated in each of their last seven FA Cup ties against teams from the same division as them since beating Southampton 1-0 in the fifth round in 2013-14. 

Betfair Bet: Back Everton @ 11/102.11

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Macclesfield v Crystal Palace: Back Toffees to progress

Saturday 10 January, 12:15
Live on BBC1

The Opta Stat:

Across the FA Cup first and second rounds this season, Macclesfield's Daniel Elliott has had the most shots (17) and shots on target (13), while only Burton Albion's Tyrese Shade (5) has netted more goals than Elliott (4).

Betfair Bet: Back Elliott to have three or more shots @ 5/23.50

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Wolves v Shrewsbury: Back Old Gold to see off Shrews

Saturday 10 January, 12:15
Live on TNT 6

The Opta Stat:

Wolves have progressed from seven of their last eight FA Cup ties against sides from a lower division, with the exception being a 3-2 home loss to Coventry in the 2023-24 quarter-final.

Betfair Bet: Back Wolves to win to nil @ 1/12.00

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Doncaster v Southampton: Back Saints to march on

Saturday 10 January, 15:00

The Opta Stat:

Southampton are unbeaten in their last 12 away FA Cup matches against sides from outside of the Premier League (W8 D4) since a 1-0 defeat to Bristol Rovers in February 2008.

Betfair Bet: Back Southampton @ 4/51.80

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Fulham v Middlesbrough: Back Silva to sustain Cup record

Saturday 10 January, 15:00

The Opta Stat:

Fulham manager Marco Silva has managed in seven previous FA Cup third round ties, and has won all seven matches by an aggregate score of 15-2. 

Betfair Bet: Back Fulham @ 13/82.63

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Ipswich v Blackpool: Back Silva to sustain Cup record

Saturday 10 January, 15:00

The Opta Stat:

Blackpool have been eliminated in 17 of their last 20 FA Cup ties against sides from a higher division, and have won one of their last 15 away games in the competition as a lower tier side (D4 L10), beating Barnsley 4-2 in January 2017 in a third round replay. 

Betfair Bet: Back Ipswich -1 @ 8/111.73

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Man City v Exeter: Back Foden in City bet builder

Saturday 10 January, 15:00

The Opta Stat:

In domestic cup competitions, Manchester City's Phil Foden has been involved in 26 goals in 20 starts against sides from lower divisions (14 goals, 12 assists), winning all 20 of those games.

Betfair Bet: Back Man City -2 and Foden to score @ 6/52.20

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Newcastle v Bournemouth: Back Cherries in a bet builder

Saturday 10 January, 15:00

The Opta Stat:

Newcastle have lost their last four FA Cup third round matches against Premier League opposition (2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16 and 2020-21), last progressing against a fellow top-flight side in 2011-12 when they beat Blackburn.

Bournemouth have won their last four away matches in the FA Cup, their best ever away winning run in the competition, with two of those wins coming at Premier League teams - Burnley in February 2021 and Everton in February 2025. 

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Salford v Swindon: Back hosts in a lively game

Saturday 10 January, 15:00

The Opta Stat:

Salford are unbeaten in their last five meetings with Swindon in all competitions (W3 D2), already beating 
them 3-2 at home in League Two this season. This is the first FA Cup meeting between the sides.

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Stoke v Coventry: Back Sky Blues to break Potters again

Saturday 10 January, 15:00

The Opta Stat:

Stoke have already lost at home to Coventry in the Championship this season. Just three teams have won twice away against the Potters in the same campaign - Newcastle United (1950-51), Luton Town (1984-85) and Liverpool (2015-16). 

Coventry's Ellis Simms has been involved in eight goals in his last four appearances in the FA Cup, scoring six and assisting two.

Betfair Bet: Back Coventry and Simms to score @ 3/14.00

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Bristol City v Watford: Back the hosts to beat Hornets again

Saturday 10 January, 17:45
Live on TNT 7

The Opta Stat:

Bristol City are unbeaten in their last six home games against Watford in all competitions (W2 D4) since losing 2-0 in March 2012 in a Championship clash. 

Betfair Bet: Back Bristol City @ 5/42.25

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Tottenham v Aston Villa: Back Rogers in Villans bet builder

Saturday 10 January, 17:45
Live on BBC1

The Opta Stat:

Tottenham have lost two of their last three FA Cup ties against Aston Villa, going out against the Villans in the fourth round last season. The last team to eliminate Spurs from the FA Cup in consecutive seasons were Manchester United in 2007-08/2008-09. Villa have already won 2-1 at Tottenham in the Premier League this season. As a top-flight side, the last team they beat twice away from home in a single campaign was Norwich City in 2012-13. 

Morgan Rogers has been involved in five goals in four appearances against Tottenham in all competitions (3 goals, 2 assists), scoring and assisting in Aston Villa's 2-1 win against them in the FA Cup last season. 

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Charlton v Chelsea: Back Pedro in Blues win

Saturday 10 January, 20:00
Live on TNT 1

The Opta Stat:

Chelsea have progressed from 61 of their last 63 FA Cup ties against sides from a lower division, including their last 22 in a row. The two exceptions in this 63-tie sequence were against Barnsley in the 2007-08 quarter-final and in the 2014-15 fourth round against Bradford City. 

Chelsea's João Pedro has been involved in seven goals in his last four starts in the FA Cup (6 goals, 1 assist), coming while he was playing for Watford and Brighton.

Betfair Bet: Back Chelsea and Pedro to score @ 7/52.40

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