Everton v Tottenham: Leaky defences to struggle

Everton v Tottenham
Wednesday 10 February, 20:15
Live on BT Sport 1

Tough Toffees are on the right track

After his side fought back from 2-0 and 3-2 down to snatch a point against Manchester United at Old Trafford, Everton boss Carlo Ancelotti admitted his team is still a level below the elite sides in the division. However, the Merseyside giants have made clear progress since he arrived, and they are in with a shot of snatching a Champions League spot. They have games in hand, and they are currently 11.010/1 in the Top 4 Finish market and 3.39/4 to end up in the top six. Reaching an FA Cup quarter-final would further underline that sense of improvement.

Ancelotti has also conceded that he has had to adopt a more pragmatic approach in recent games in a bid to make his side more stable. They have certainly missed the steady hand of Brazilian Allan on the midfield tiller, although the former Napoli star is back in training after a long absence. Without him, Everton have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last six PL matches. Their home form has also been concerning, with one point collected from the last three outings against West Ham, Leicester and Newcastle.

James Rodriguez was withdrawn early in the Manchester United game because of a tight calf, and the Colombian international remains a doubt for this one. It's unclear whether Allan will be fit enough to play a part. Keeper Jordan Pickford damaged ribs against Newcastle, and may be rushed back after a poor display from deputy Robin Olsen at Old Trafford.

Kane return was sorely needed

After a run of three straight league defeats, two-and-a-half of which were missed by skipper Harry Kane, the England striker's recovery coincided with Tottenham's return to winning ways. Kane placed in the opener in a 2-0 victory over West Brom, and the legendary Jimmy Greaves is now the only player in history to have scored more goals for the Lilywhites.

After the win, Spurs boss Jose Mourinho was keen to talk up others like Lucas Moura, but he did also admit that Tottenham depend heavily on Kane. The statistics back up that assessment - with 13 PL goals and 11 assists, Kane been involved in 24 of his side's 36 top-flight goals this term.

Mourinho knows that the pressure is on when it comes to winning trophies, and he has generally taken the cup competitions seriously this term. Spurs were largely impressive in the Europa League group stage, they have reached the final of the League Cup, and in the FA Cup he has put out decent sides against Marine and Wycombe. It remains to be seen whether Mourinho will start Kane again, or keep him in reserve for the weekend's trip to Manchester City, but don't expect a scratch side.

Evenly-matched occasion in store

The Match Odds market doesn't have a clear favourite, and you can see why. Everton have only won two of their last six games against top-flight opposition, while Spurs have also taken maximum points just twice in the last six PL encounters.

If you don't want to back either team to win outright without insurance, you could back Everton Draw No Bet at 1.9210/11 or Tottenham on the same basis at evens. If the tie goes to extra-time, you get your stake back. If you want to keep extra time and penalties in play, you can back Everton in the To Qualify market at 1.8910/11, with Tottenham slightly bigger at 1.9310/11.

Deficient defences could come unstuck

The accepted playbook when approaching a Tottenham clash against a good side is to assume that Mourinho will look to spoil and contain, risking little. However, there are several reasons why I think Over 2.5 Goals is worth a look at 2.26/5.

Firstly, neither defence is excelling. Tottenham have managed just one clean sheet in their last seven competitive games, while Everton's only shut-out of 2021 was against a hapless Sheffield Wednesday in the previous round. Four of Everton's last six games have seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet land, despite Ancelotti's assertion that his team is trying to tighten things up. Three of Spurs' last six have featured three goals or more.

There is another reason to suggest this may be more open than the market suggests. Neither side will want extra time, given the compacted schedules they face, especially Tottenham. If it's level late on, I think we may see chutzpah rather than caution.

Kane good value to strike

The big question is whether Harry Kane will start so soon after his return to fitness. If he does, he looks an excellent bet to find the net at 6/4 on the Sportsbook. He has scored in five of his last nine appearances. Keep an eye on the team news, and if Kane does start, back him without hesitation.

On the Everton side of things, Dominic Calvert-Lewin has had to make adjustments to his game recently, but his predatory instincts were on show against Manchester United. He has scored in his last two matches, and is 13/8 to find the net. He got the winner against Tottenham in the league on the opening weekend of the campaign.