Chelsea v Leeds United: Whites to frustrate ailing Blues

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Sunday 26 April, 15:00
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Chelsea labour under owners who think they know best

There's something quite startling about the fact that under the Clearlake/Boehly ownership structure, Chelsea have looked to copy Brighton, only to now find themselves behind the Seagulls in the Premier League standings. The Blues have brought players, sporting directors and coaches over from Tony Bloom's operation, but unlike Brighton they have developed an extraordinary knack of wasting money and seem to have given very little thought to the chemistry of a squad.

It seems fitting that Brighton's 3-0 hammering of Chelsea in midweek should lead to yet another coaching change, as Liam Rosenior was given his marching orders. A good young coach was overpromoted and quickly lost the trust of a dressing room still smarting from the loss of previous manager Enzo Maresca. Chelsea have now lost five straight Premier League games, they are losing ground in the race for the Champions League and the FA Cup remains their only route to silverware.

For the second time this season, Calum McFarlane is in caretaker charge, a 38-year-old who has worked his way up the coaching ladder but who had no elite playing career to speak of. In his previous spell, Chelsea drew with Manchester City but lost to Fulham.

It's easy to forget that there is plenty of talent in the Chelsea squad, but the balance is all wrong, with a lack of experience a key factor. The obsession with player trading has unsettled some young signings before they really had a chance to get going, and the refusal to spend the money required to sign Milan and France keeper Mike Maignan last summer was a staggering mishap.

Brazilian superstar Estevao is out for the rest of the season with a hamstring injury, and skipper Reece James is struggling with a thing problem. Joao Pedro and Cole Palmer should return to the starting XI after injury.

Farke has shown what patience can yield

In late November, Leeds United lost 3-2 at Manchester City, and that defeat proved to be the turning point in the Whites' campaign. Partway through the game, under-fire manager Daniel Farke experimented with a back three, and the change transformed the campaign.

At that stage of the season, Leeds were being persistently linked with other managers, but Farke then used that new formation to deliver a run of two defeats in 14. Leeds have now put 40 points on the board in the Premier League, and their latest success was a battling 2-2 draw at Bournemouth in midweek, a result acquired thanks to a 97th-minute leveller from Sean Longstaff.

This season feels enormous for Farke personally. He was in danger of being seen as a coach who could deliver promotions from the Championship (he twice took Norwich up), but who couldn't cut it at Premier League level. The counter-argument would be that he hasn't previously had the resources to successfully fight a relegation battle, and a smart summer of recruitment at Elland Road has done the trick.

That squad depth has helped Leeds in this competition, and our friends at Opta point out that they have had eight different scorers in the FA Cup this term. In the quarter-finals, Leeds blew a 2-0 lead by conceding two stoppage-time goals at West Ham, but they still squeezed through on penalties to reach their first FA Cup semi-final since 1987.

Rampaging right-back Jayden Bogle hopes to recover from a foot injury, while Anton Stach is struggling with a knee problem. Midfielder Ilia Gruev has been ruled out for the rest of the season.

Leeds can at least force extra time

The Opta stats are damning when it comes to Leeds' chances. The Whites have lost their last three Wembley trips without scoring, while Chelsea have progressed from the FA Cup semi-finals to the final in nine of the last 11 attempts. Chelsea have won all six of their previous FA Cup ties against Leeds.

However, I'm going to push against the hand of history and back Leeds +0.5 on the Asian Handicap at 1.84/5. This is a group of Chelsea players that's in poor form, and even though many of them will be delighted to have got rid of Rosenior, it's difficult to suddenly switch on an improved level of performance.

In the Premier League, Leeds beat Chelsea 3-1 at Elland Road and equalised in stoppage time to draw at Stamford Bridge, and the Yorkshire giants have lost just four of their last 25 competitive games. Farke's men are capable of taking this to extra time at least.

Wembley clashes rarely ignite

Even though there have been eight goals across the two league clashes between these two, I like the look of Under 2.5 Goals here at 2.0421/20. Big games at Wembley rarely turn into goal-fests (the excellent Betfair tipster Lewis Jones tells me the goal average in the last 51 club games at Wembley going into this weekend was just 1.9), and an uncertain Chelsea have drawn a blank in six of their last seven competitive matches.

Leeds' last 22 competitive games have been an even spilt between unders and overs, and I think the size of the occasion and Chelsea's attacking struggles tips this the way of an Under 2.5 Goals game.

Now read Kev's European tips here!