Lewis Jones' Betting Notebook: Footy punters take note - goal averages on the rise in Serie A

Serie A goals surge creates betting value

There is something strange happening in Serie A.

For years, Italy's top-flight has carried the reputation of being a league where goals are harder to come by. Last season, that stereotype was backed up by the numbers, with Serie A averaging just 2.43 goals per game - the lowest figure among Europe's major leagues.

Well, somebody appears to have flicked a switch.

After the first 40 matches of this season, Serie A is averaging a whopping 3.03 goals per game. That's an increase of 0.60 goals per match, or roughly 25 per cent.

This has pricked the ears in betting circles.

Who will win the Europa League? Read Kevin Hatchard's guide and get two outright tips for 2026/27

Underlying numbers support shift in dynamic

Before we dismiss it as a small-sample quirk, the underlying numbers are pointing in exactly the same direction.

Expected goals are running at 3.01 per game, almost identical to the actual goals figure, while teams are averaging 4.4 more shots per match than they did last season. Expected goals from open play are also up by around 28 per cent.

That is important.

We're not simply looking at a few freakish 4-3 results inflating the numbers. The process is producing more attacking situations, more shots and more chances. The goals are following.

Italian Serie A - Overs Unders 2.5

There is another fascinating statistical quirk which could make the numbers even more interesting.

Only one penalty has been scored so far this season from the 121 goals scored. That's just 0.03 penalty goals per game, compared with an average of around 0.2 per game across the previous five Serie A seasons.

In other words, non-penalty goals are doing an enormous amount of the heavy lifting.

If penalties return towards their normal level, there is a reasonable argument that the goal rate could go even higher.

So what has changed?

Part of it could be tactical, but I also wonder whether the summer's emphasis from the Italian authorities on increasing effective playing time is having an impact.

There has been a concerted effort to speed things up - including countdowns at throw-ins, quicker substitutions and greater additions of injury time. The intention from the authorities has certainly been clear: make Serie A more entertaining, more dynamic and more appealing as a spectacle.

And for bettors, that matters.

Of course, the bookmakers aren't stupid. They can see 3.03 goals per game just as easily as we can. If the market is already moving from a 2.43-goal league towards a 3.03-goal expectation, simply backing Over 2.5 goals in every Serie A game isn't a strategy.

We need to identify the games where the underlying attacking numbers, tactical profiles and team news suggest the league's new goal environment is being underestimated by the market. Be smart and you're going to find great value in the goals markets.

That's where the nous comes in and listening to the right people/tipsters.

The big picture tells us something has changed in Serie A. The challenge now is finding the individual fixtures where the bookmakers haven't changed their expectations enough.

That's where the value should be.

Now you've read Lewis' Notebook now read more tips