Tottenham v Roma Tips: Back 9/4 Europa League Bet Builder

• Spurs' win over Man City has to be a catalyst for change

• Ranieri's Roma will place priority on defence

• Roma struggle for European wins on the road

Tottenham Hotspur v Roma
Thursday 28 November, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports 1

Buoyant Spurs welcome ailing Roma

From losing at home to promoted Ipswich, to beating Manchester City by four goals on the road, in a victory that stands as Pep Guardiola's heaviest home league defeat as a manager. Of all the volatile swings in results we've seen from Ange Postecoglou's Spurs, it'd be fair to say this one takes the cake.

Going back over the last month of competition, we can see the trend on a slightly wider scale too. Spurs have won three games against Manchester City (twice) and Aston Villa, and lost against Galatasaray and Ipswich. Their goal difference against City and Villa was 10-2; their same in the other two was 3-5.

Although falls have often followed the highs of the current regime, there has to come a point where Spurs start to limit them. As they showed at Manchester City, the top end of their performances is very high indeed. Their attacking levels are out of reach for most. And perhaps after notching such a signature victory - doing to a Guardiola team what very few have been able to - this will mark a before and after of the Postecoglou era.

Defence first for Ranieri's Roma

Next up for them are Roma, a sizable European name but one who arrive in poor condition. Already onto their third manager of the campaign, it is the familiar face of Claudio Ranieri who brings his ailing side to the capital - and with that we can be pretty sure of the type of game we're likely to see.

Ranieri took charge of his first match at the weekend, seeing his side go down 1-0 away at leaders Napoli. Out of a predictably defensive gameplan, they averaged 36% possession and only attempted four shots in open play. Indeed, Roma completed just 67 passes in the first half, setting out their stall for a game of frustration marked by their defensive solidity.

While still very early on in his role, where he's looking to build some semblance of fortitude and with Roma still in a precarious state, we can expect Spurs to see plenty of territory on Thursday night. It won't be lost on Ranieri that their opponents won 4-0 at the Etihad on Saturday either, likely only heightening the caution of their gameplan.

The Italians haven't had much joy on the road in Europe of late either. In European away games played outside of Italy, they've only won one of their last 12 matches. That was away to Moldovan side Sheriff Tiraspol last term. And across those 12 trips, they've failed to score a goal on seven occasions.

With a 'stronger' opponent ahead of them - at least in name - there's a good chance Postecoglou will line up a few more of his bigger names here, compared to previous games in the Europa League. They'll be keen to prolong the momentum they picked up at the Etihad, and I'll go with them to win without conceding here.

'Rested' Brennan Johnson to drive Spurs attack

He did get himself on the scoresheet in the memorable win at the Etihad, but Brennan Johnson had a much lighter workload than the game's other catalysts. Where the likes of Dominic Solanke and Dejan Kulusevski worked their way through 12.3 and 12.4 kilometres respectively, the Welshman's 63^rd minute substitute cameo kept him to just 3.9 kilometres and left plenty of energy in the attack for upcoming games.

Johnson has been a key contributor for Spurs in the Europa League this season too. Along with Solanke, he has the joint-most goal involvements (3) in the competition this term, scoring twice and assisting another. Indeed, he's either scored or set up a teammate in both of his European starts in 2024-25, netting against Qarabag and assisting against Galatasaray.

With a start surely on the cards for the 23-year-old here, I'll opt for Johnson to continue the theme and find himself a goal or assist against Roma.

As for the Italian side, I'm drawn to the fouls market for their midfielders - especially in a game where they'll no doubt spend length periods behind the ball.

Apart from having a lot of work on to cover the necessary spaces, they're also the ones who'll set the tone for Roma in how aggressive or passive they might be. If they're stuck behind the ball for long spells without looking to squeeze up or try and disrupt in some way from their deeper position, it could be a long night.

With that in mind, I'll opt for Bryan Cristante to commit 2+ fouls here. He's just the type of experienced midfielder that Ranieri will lean on for a game like this, while he's been booked in five of his last eight starts away from home in Europe. Indeed, he was also booked in the new manager's first game at Napoli at the weekend, and looks a good candidate to try and disrupt Spurs' attacking football.

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