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Roma to take charge of the tie with first leg victory
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Paulo Dybala's goal-scoring streak to continue
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AS Roma v Brighton & Hove Albion
Thursday 7th March, 17:45
Live on TNT Sports 2
Seagulls travel to face an in-form Roma
It's been a long wait for Brighton in returning to European action. December 14th was the last time they played in the Europa League, and while the Seagulls might have hoped the time in between would allow them chance to arrive to the knockout stages in better condition, it would be tough to come to that conclusion now it's here.
Since beating Marseille in December, Brighton have only won five of their 14 games across all competitions - 40% of which came through two wins against Sheffield United. They also go into Thursday night's game in Rome on the back of consecutive defeats in which they've failed to score. Indeed, they've never lost three in a row under De Zerbi before.
On their day, Brighton continue to be one of England's most impressive teams. Yet as the months have passed, with De Zerbi constantly having to make changes to his team and adapt to their injury situation, producing the football we know they're capable of has proven an entirely different task.
Along with their struggling form in recent months, the condition of their squad has only gotten worse in terms of injuries. Brighton are expected to be without both Kaoru Mitoma and João Pedro for the first leg in Rome - two players who have been crucial for them all season, and especially in the Europa League.
While the Brazilian has netted six goals in the tournament this term, Mitoma was one of only two players - along with Pascal Groß - to start every game in the group stage for the Seagulls.
With respect to the opposition, Brighton will make the trip to Italy at a high point in the season for Roma. Since Daniele De Rossi took charge, they have only lost one of their nine game across all competitions, picking up victories in six of those (D2). Indeed, their only defeat in this run came against Simone Inzaghi's Internazionale - one of the most formidable teams in Europe on current form.
In what is their first ever away game in the knockout stages of a European competition, I expect a Brighton side high on ambition - but short on form and health - to come up short against an opponent in much stronger shape.
Dybala has been De Rossi's talisman
Paulo Dybala has scored seven goals in eight games since De Rossi took charge - that's more than any other player for a Serie A side across all competitions. Admittedly, three of those have come from the penalty spot, but there's no doubt that the arrival of the new coach has produced a real goal-scoring spike in Rome.
After averaging 1.6 goals per game under Jose Mourinho this season, Roma have scored 2.4 per game under De Rossi. In fact, their 22 goals are the joint-most of any Serie A team across all competitions since January 20th - level with Internazionale.
Of course, clean sheets haven't exactly been a strong point for Brighton under De Zerbi either. Their success to date has been built on using possession to generate lots of scoring chances and outscore teams, rather than using the ball to control the game and keep their own door shut.
Brighton have conceded in 30 of their 37 matches across all competitions this season, as well as in 17 of their 21 games played away from home. And in the hostile atmosphere at the Stadio Olimpico - with an in-form, free-scoring team in front of them - it's hard to imagine the visitors managing to keep Roma at bay here.
Although Romelu Lukaku is the man with the better scoring record in Europe, I'll opt to stick with the better odds for Paulo Dybala to get on the scoresheet anytime @ 9/52.80. This will be the Argentinean's first game at the Olimpico since his hat-trick against Torino at the end of March, and he'll be keen to keep that hot streak in front of goal alive.
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