Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa: Back Morgan Gibbs-White's hot streak to continue at 12/5

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Time to take Europe serious Forest

Since Vítor Pereira's arrival at the City Ground - Nottingham Forest's fourth permanent manager of the season - the Europa League hasn't exactly felt like a priority, more a slightly unwelcome inconvenience. 

Premier League survival was always his main target. 

Domestically, Forest are five points clear with five games left to play. By no means out of the woods but at 14/115.00 with the Sportsbook to be relegated, it's fair to say they have a little more wiggle room. 

In the top flight, they've actually gone six unbeaten with some eye catching results across that sample. 

They drew 2-2 at the Etihad, beat relegation rivals Tottenham 3-0, Burnley 4-1 and most recently beat Sunderland 5-0 at the Stadium of Light. 

It should allow Pereira to loosen the shackles a little, relax and avert a bit more attention to this European semi-final - as daft as it sounds. 

His side did draw with Thursday's opponents in the league this month so they will certainly fancy their chances of qualifying, although the odds suggest otherwise.  

Villa's European connoisseur

Aston Villa's commanding position in the hunt for Champions League qualification has allowed them to take this competition a little more seriously than Thursday's opponents - not that you would expect anything less from Unai Emery. 

The Villans boss is something of a Europa League connoisseur, winning the competition four times, three times on the spin and reaching this stage seven times. 

A fifth place finish will guarantee a spot in next season's Champions League and that is where Villa currently sit in the top flight, eight points clear of sixth. 

Winning this competition would also see them competing in Europe's premier knockout competition next term and Emery's side are the current 4/51.80 favourites to win it. 

Villa's defeat at Fulham on Saturday ended an unbeaten run of six games (W5) and in this competition, their record is almost perfect only failing to win one game (W11 L1).

Odds suggest a close contest

Unsurprisingly, the visitors are the clear favourites to qualify at 13/201.65 with the Sportsbook, Nottingham Forest are 6/52.20. 

The match betting at the City Ground is much tighter with the hosts 6/42.50 in the match odds, the draw 21/103.10 and the Villa win 15/82.88. 

New Year, new Morgan Gibbs-White 

Morgan Gibbs-White has turned it on recently, just in-time for the World Cup as well which is lucky. 

He was Forest's main man last season and the season before, and the season before that with 15-15-13 goals and assists across those three campaigns. 

At the turn of the year this season, Gibbs-White had only scored four goals and set up three in 25 appearances. Since then, he's scored 12 times and got three assists in 24 games. 

He scored the match winner against Porto, followed it up with a hattrick against Burnley and then scored and set up another at the Stadium of Light. 

At 12/53.40, his price to score anytime appeals.

On the red cards?

Joao Pinheiro is the referee and it's a good appointment for card enthusiasts. 

In 27 appearances this season, he has dished out 127Y and 7R cards which is an average of 4.96 a game. 

He's actually hit double figures twice, each of which coming in his last five games, and brandished the majority of his red cards (4) in his last 12 appearances. 

Cards should be expected then and price dependent, I'm hoping at least two of them are of the red variety. 

Nottingham Forest's last game in this competition saw a red card and in total they have been involved in four red card games this term. 

Likewise, Villa have had four red card games this season. Neither can be described as hot-headed but given the referee and the occasion, both a red card in the match and each team to have a red card could be worth a tout when the prices become available. 

I'll be hoping for around 9/25.50 for the former and 50/151.00 for the latter. 

On the yellow cards?

Naturally, the yellow card markets will be worth a look. 

I'll be eagerly waiting for Elliot Anderson's price to be carded. 

Anything around 7/24.50 is worth taking because Anderson's picked up 22 cards across the last two seasons with Forest - that's a cards per 90 average of 0.29. 

By the same token, anything north of 5/23.50 would be worth taking for Anderson's opposite number Lamare Bogarde. 

Bogarde is expected to start for the Villans and he has seven cards, impressive considering he has only started 18 games. 

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