Manchester United v Sevilla: Back United to nudge in front at Old Trafford

• United exceptional at home in all competitions

• Martial should come in for the injured Rashford

• Sevilla have lost both away games in the knockout rounds

• Red Devils are the 11/8 favourites to win competition

Manchester United v Sevilla
Thursday 13 April, 20:00
Live on BT Sport

Ten Hag can still have glorious first season

Manchester United's 4-0 demolition at Brentford seems like a lifetime ago now.

Cristiano Ronaldo huffed, puffed and sulked as Erik ten Hag's new-look side was torn asunder in the West London sunshine. Since then, Ronaldo has been jettisoned, a victim of his own hubris.

Ten Hag has led his team to League Cup success, an FA Cup semi-final and fourth spot in the Premier League.

In the Europa League, the Red Devils finished second in their group behind Real Sociedad, but they have since exacted their revenge on Spanish clubs, sweeping aside Barcelona and Real Betis.

It's not an entirely pretty picture. United are still too reliant on Marcus Rashford for their goals (the England star has netted 15 of their 44 league strikes), and in the league they have won just five of their last 11 matches.

That said, ten Hag has made clear progress in just a few months, and if United can sign a top-class striker in the summer, they have to be seen as title contenders for next term.

The basis of United's progress this term has been their impressive home form. They have won 23 of their last 27 competitive matches at Old Trafford, which is a staggering body of work. In the Europa League they have won their last four matches at the Theatre of Dreams.

Brazilian midfield enforcer Casemiro has been kicking his heels in the Premier League because of a long domestic ban, but he should start here, while Christian Eriksen made his long-awaited return from injury as a late substitute in the weekend's 2-0 win over Everton.

Rashford limped out of the Everton win, and might have to be replaced by Frenchman Anthony Martial, who scored against the Toffees.

Sevilla a shadow of the sides that graced UEL

Sevilla understandably see the Europa League as their competition, given that they have won it a remarkable six times since the turn of the millennium, but this is no ordinary season for the Andalusians.

Los Rojiblancos have been battling relegation throughout the campaign, and are already on their third different coach of the season.

Julen Lopetegui was dumped after running out of steam, the return of Jorge Sampaoli failed to move the needle, and so the no-nonsense veteran Jose Luis Mendilibar has been parachuted in to get the club over the line in the race for safety.

Sevilla were involved in an utterly bizarre game against Celta Vigo at the weekend.

Despite seeing Pape Gueye sent off in the 19th minute, the hosts managed to build a 2-0 lead. However, tiredness crept in, and Mendilibar's men went from leading 2-0 in the 89th minute to having to settle for a 2-2 draw.

They finished with nine men, and could even have lost. That result means Sevilla are only five points above the dropzone with ten games left.

The UEL has offered some respite, but Sevilla have flirted with disaster. In the playoff round they thrashed PSV 3-0 at home but then lost 2-0 away, and in the last 16 they beat Fenerbahce 2-0, but rode their luck in a 1-0 second-leg reverse in Turkey.

In their Champions League away games they drew 0-0 at Copenhagen, 1-1 at Borussia Dortmund and lost 3-1 at Manchester City.

Jesus Corona and Joan Jordan are struggling with injuries, and are unlikely to feature. Youssef El-Nesyri will lead the line, and after a great World Cup with Morocco, he has scored 13 goals in 21 competitive appearances.

United to take first-leg lead

Given that United have won their home matches against Barcelona and Real Betis, who are both significantly better than Sevilla, the logic follows that the Red Devils should win this one too.

United's home form is outstanding, and I just can't see Sevilla avoiding defeat.

There are a couple of ways to play this. You could back United -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.166/5, which certainly has some appeal, but the potential absence of Rashford is a concern.

Mendilibar isn't particularly expansive, and I think he'll try to limit the damage here so that Sevilla still have something to play for at the Sanchez Pizjuan next week.

You can use the Sportsbook to back United to win and Under 3.5 Goals at evens.

That has paid out in 16 of United's last 24 competitive home matches. I'll be slightly greedier and throw in Over 6.5 Corners as well at 2.3811/8.

Sevilla's La Liga games average just over nine corners, while United's PL average is 10.2.