Liverpool v Union Saint-Gilloise: Reds to win, but not by much

• Union Saint-Gilloise thriving in Belgium again

• Reds riled by Spurs debacle

• Jota can strike at odds-against

Liverpool v Union Saint-Gilloise
Thursday 5 Oct, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports

Liverpool will use VAR controversy as fuel

If emotional managers like Jürgen Klopp love one thing, it's developing a siege mentality, a feeling that it's "us against the world". Already underdogs against the financial might of Manchester City, Liverpool rightly feel aggrieved at having a perfectly good goal disallowed against Tottenham, a game they went on to lose 2-1 after having two men sent off.

Klopp was already enthusiastic about his latest Liverpool rebuild, and the willingness of his players to fight at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium has merely increased his admiration for a very promising group. Liverpool now have genuine depth in attack and midfield, although concerns remain over their defensive resources.

Liverpool made a modest start to their Europa League adventure, falling behind in Austria against LASK before turning the game their way. Ryan Gravenberch, recruited on transfer deadline day from Bayern Munich, gave a very encouraging display, and was described by Klopp as the best player on the pitch. The Dutchman's cross for Luis Diaz's winner was sublime.

Klopp will again shuffle his pack. Caomhin Kelleher should once again start in goal, Scottish tyro Ben Doak might start out wide, but Cody Gakpo and Thiago are on the sidelines. With Curtis Jones and Diogo Jota now suspended domestically, it makes sense to include them here.

Union maintaining their momentum

Last season was a truly extraordinary campaign for Union Saint-Gilloise.

They narrowly missed out on winning their first ever Belgian league title, losing their final game of the season 3-1 at home to Club Brugge, and in the Europa League they made it all the way to the quarter-finals.

Despite losing star striker Victor Boniface to Bayer Leverkusen (the team that knocked them out of the Europa League), Union SG have started this campaign strongly, and are top of the Belgian top flight on goal difference.

A 1-1 draw with Toulouse on Matchday One of the UEL group stage made for a modest start, but Liverpool's comeback win over LASK did Alexander Blessin's side no harm.

A top-two finish in the group would be an achievement for Union, given their lack of European pedigree. After all, this is a club that hasn't won a league title since 1935, and last season's European campaign was their first continental action since the mid-1960s.

Boniface was the main man last season, but a number of players have picked up the goalscoring slack. Algerian Mohammed Amoura has three league goals, Dennis Eckert-Ayensa has smashed in five goals in six top-flight matches (although he'll miss the Anfield trip with injury), while former Häcken and Wehen Wiesbaden forward Gustaf Nilsson has three goals.

The loss of Eckert-Ayensa to injury is the only issue for Blessin. Alexis Mac Allister's brother Kevin (yes, he was named after Kevin McAllister from Home Alone), is likely to be a sub, while former Accrington defender Ross Sykes is on a high after scoring twice in the weekend's 3-1 win over Sporting Charleroi.

Belgians to batten down the hatches

Union Saint-Gilloise have made great strides since Brighton owner Tony Bloom got involved, and they are genuinely a team that now pushes for trophies and goes toe-to-toe with big hitters in Europe.

This is undoubtedly a step up from what they are used to, and no team goes to Anfield on a European night with huge confidence, but I think they can at least be competitive.

Liverpool face a trip to Brighton on Sunday, so they will heavily rotate their line-up here. I think the in-form visitors can dig in and make life awkward, so I'll back them +2.0 on the Asian Handicap at 1.855/6 on the Betfair Exchange. In that case, only a Liverpool win by three goals or more would see our bet lose.

Fired-up Jota can make his mark

Diogo Jota was extremely unfortunate to be sent off against Spurs, and he can take out his frustration on Union. The Portuguese international has already got five goals for club and country this season, and he is trading at a healthy 2.35/4 to find the net here.