Europa League Tips: Roman revenge on the cards

• Lazio consistent in Serie A
• Zurich having disastrous season
• Union Berlin games tend to lack goals

Sarri's boys to hit back

Lazio v Midtjylland
Thursday 27 October, 17:45
Live on BT Sport

If you look at Lazio's season so far, one result stands out like a sore thumb, a blemish on the landscape. The 5-1 hammering in Denmark against Midtjylland is one of only two competitive defeats that Maurizio Sarri's team have suffered so far this term, and it's even more strange when you bear in mind that the Romans have only leaked five goals in 11 Serie A matches.

While the Danish side has to be respected (they have put together a ten-match unbeaten streak in all competitions, I think Lazio will show their quality here.

The loss of star striker Ciro Immobile to injury is a blow, but without him Sarri's side still managed a 2-0 win at high-flyers Atalanta at the weekend. Felipe Anderson and Mattia Zaccagni still chipped in with goals, and Spanish veteran Pedro is still playing at a high level.

All four teams in this group are still locked together on five points, and I think this is where a Lazio team that has only lost at home to Napoli this term steps up a gear. I'll back them -1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 1.9520/21.

Zurich's pain to continue

Zurich v Bodo Glimt
Thursday 27 October, 17:45
Live on BT Sport

This has been a miserable campaign for Swiss champions Zurich. A club that massively overperformed last term then lost its top scorer and its coach, and the difference this term has been stark.

In the UEL, Zurich have lost all four of their group games, and in the Swiss Super League they are fighting a relegation battle. The weekend's 4-1 derby defeat to Grasshopper means the champions are rock-bottom of the SSL, with just six points collected from 13 matches.

Bodo Glimt won the reverse fixture 2-1, and they know that a win here keeps them in the hunt for a spot in the knockout phase. They pushed Arsenal hard last time out, but ultimately fell short in a 1-0 defeat.

Domestically they have recently lost their Norwegian league crown to Molde, but they are still on course to finish second, and they have won their last two league games 6-0 and 5-0.

Kjetil Knutsen's side is superior to Zurich and is on far better form, so I'll back them to pick up three points here at just above evens.

Tammy to find redemption

HJK v Roma
Thursday 27 October, 20:00
Live on BT Sport

These are desperate times in Europe for Roma. Jose Mourinho's Conference League champions may find themselves back in that competition again if they can't dig themselves out of trouble across the next two games.

They are three points behind second-placed Ludogorets, but they will play the Bulgarians at the Olimpico on Matchday Six, so not all is lost. Firstly, they have to win against HJK in Finnish capital Helsinki, and I think off-form striker Tammy Abraham may well rediscover his touch.

There's no doubt that Abraham isn't looking as sharp as last season, and he has scored just twice this season. However, his non-penalty xG figure of 4.8 suggests he's still getting into good goalscoring positions, and the England international will start finding the net sooner rather than later.

The trip to Finland might be a good place to start - HJK have lost three of their four UEL group games so far, including a 3-0 loss in the Italian capital.

Roma need to win, and I'd expect Mourinho to keep faith with Abraham, especially when you consider that Paulo Dybala is out injured. I'll happily back him to score at evens.

Fingernails to be bitten in Berlin

Union Berlin v Braga
Thursday 27 October, 17:45
Live on BT Sport

After back-to-back 1-0 wins over Malmö, Union Berlin are suddenly back in the Europa League qualification picture.

Although the Bundesliga leaders suffered a shock defeat at Bochum at the weekend, they are still having an incredible season, and their only home defeat all campaign was their UEL opener against Belgian side Union Saint Gilloise.

Braga are old hands when it comes to this competition, but they have just had two bruising games against Union Saint Gilloise. They saw a 1-0 lead turned into a 2-1 defeat against them in Braga, and then blew a 3-1 advantage to draw 3-3 in Belgium.

However, there aren't likely to be as many fireworks in Köpenick this Thursday.

All four of Union's games in the group stage have featured just one goal apiece, and 11 of the German side's last 12 matches in all competitions have seen an Under 2.5 Goals bet land. I think this will be tense and tight, so I'll go for Under 2.5 Goals at 1.845/6.