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Kaoru Mitoma continues to shine for Brighton
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Seagulls are favoured, but are still liable to conceding
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Brighton & Hove Albion v Ajax
Thursday 26 October, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports 2
It's not do or die for Brighton in the Europa League just yet, but Thursday night's meeting with Ajax is one where anything but a victory would start to complicate their qualification hopes more than they'd like. With just a point from their opening two games, the Seagulls are still very much searching for a definitive lift-off in Europe.
Indeed, De Zerbi's side currently find themselves in one of their toughest moments since he joined - something that's rooted in having to manage European football and the extra games this season. "We're playing a different sport to last season," he remarked last month, referring to their current schedule.
Brighton are winless in their last five games in all competitions (D2 L3), their longest run without a win since his first five matches in charge back last October (also D2 L3).
There's no doubt that the Seagulls have run into trouble of late, and have had to contend with questions whether De Zerbi's methods have become predictable. But within learning to manage their new responsibilities and do so while integrating new players - which is linked to their growing injury list - they've also had some very difficult fixtures of late.
Four of their five games in their current winless run have been away from home, facing Chelsea, Aston Villa, Marseille, and Manchester City. In their one game at the Amex in the run, they took a 2-2 draw with Liverpool in what was a positive overall performance.
Though it ended in defeat, their display against Manchester City at the weekend was positive by the end too. Brighton scored the only goal of the second half, averaged 63% possession in the final half hour, and made Pep Guardiola's side sweat to preserve their result in the game's closing moments.
The architect for much of that second half work was none other than Kaoru Mitoma. Fresh from signing a new contract at the club last week, the Japanese international was the catalyst for their response, driving Brighton forward even with Kyle Walker acting as his match-up. His four successful take-ons were the most of any visiting player at the Etihad since Bayern's Kingsley Coman in April (4).
And with Brighton's attention now turning back to Europe - in a game they could really do with a victory from - I expect De Zerbi to lean on his most inspired attacker to get them over the line. Mitoma is averaging 7.3 touches in the opposition box per 90 this season, and after a fine display at the weekend, I'll take him to score any time here at 6/42.50.
Ajax travel to the Amex in a fragile state
For Ajax, meanwhile, things have quite literally never been worse than they are now. Following their defeat at Utrecht at the weekend, and subsequent departure of manager Maurice Steijn, they are now on a run of eight games without a win across all competitions - their longest since the introduction of professional football in the Netherlands in the 1950s.
With any hopes of the Dutch title long gone, getting out of their Europa League group will surely now be a target of consolation - and something they can point towards to try and change their fortunes. They've drawn both of their games in the competition in 2023-24 (v Marseille and AEK Athens), and come into this one a point above Brighton in Group B.
Despite that, there's still a huge amount of work to be done for Ajax with qualification in mind. They've scored four and conceded four across their two draws so far, but have notably faced more opposition shots (48) and shots on target (17) than any other side in the competition this term.
Indeed, they have the third-worst defence in terms of xG against (4.6), and will now face a Brighton side averaging 2.2 goals per game across all competitions this season.
I'll take De Zerbi's side to harness their firepower in this game, albeit without some resistance on the part of an Ajax side who will probably welcome the chance to get away from their domestic duties, given their current situation.
There have been 50 goals scored in Brighton's 12 games across all competitions this season, while both teams have scored in 11 of those 12 matches. With that in mind, I'll take a home win along with both sides to get themselves on the scoresheet at 13/102.30.