AC Milan v Roma Tips: Back in-form hosts to edge all-Italian clash at 10/3

• Milan have seven straight wins

• Roma much improved under De Rossi

• Hosts have Loftus-Cheek and Pulisic in top form

AC Milan v Roma
Thursday April 11, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports

Fearsome forwards

AC Milan have saved their most consistent form for the business end of the season.

They come into this tie against fellow Serie A opponents off the back of seven straight wins across all competitions. This includes away victories against sides comparable to Roma, such as Lazio and Fiorentina.

Fans from England may be aware that Ruben Loftus-Cheek has flourished in the second-half of the season in a No10 role. His former Chelsea teammate Christian Pulisic occupied that position during the 3-0 win over the weekend, to take his goal tally to five in six appearances. With another former Chelsea attacker Olivier Giroud still producing at 37-years-old and with Rafael Leao in-form, Milan have a fearsome forward line.

At the other end of the pitch, yet another former Chelsea player will be missed, as defender Fikayo Tomori serves a suspension. Stefano Pioli's side are rated at 3/41.75 to win this first-leg at the San Siro.

De Rossi revolution

Roma's decision to sack Jose Mourinho and replace him with Daniele De Rossi has proven to be a wise one.

Since the club legend returned to take temporary charge of the team, Roma have won nine of their 15 matches, drawing four times and only losing twice. There was not much in De Rossi's brief coaching history to suggest that he would be such a success, with the former Italian international having been sacked by SPAL after just 17 games in his only previous managerial role.

At the weekend Roma pulled off their most significant victory under their new boss, as they beat Lazio 1-0 in the Derby della Capitale. Yet it is fair to say that the fixture list has been pretty kind to Roma under De Rossi. Their biggest test came when they hosted Inter back in February, when they lost 4-2 and Milan represent their most difficult fixture since then.

Roma are out at 15/44.75 to win, with the draw priced at 12/53.40. Defender Evan Ndicka will miss the game through suspension, while Sardar Azmoun is out with an injury.

Expect - and back - goals

First-legs can often be tense affairs, but there is reason to believe that we will see goals in this one.

Both Milan and the visitors have scoring power. Roma come into this game having just kept three consecutive clean sheets, but it seems doubtful that they will be able to contain the hosts, who have so many attacking threats.

There have been at least three goals scored in each of Milan's last four games, while they have conceded in three of those matches. This gives an opportunity to boost the price of a home win against strong opposition. A Milan win and both teams to score is 10/34.33, while a home win and over 2.5 goals is a little slimmer at 2/13.00.

There is also value to be found in backing Milan's forwards to score. Pulisic is priced at 21/103.10 and Loftus-Cheek is available at generous odds of 9/25.50.

Now read my Conference League tipsheet for Thursday's quarter-finals!