West Ham vs AZ Alkmaar: Back hosts to claim another stunning European victory

• Hammers to secure first-leg lead

• Hosts' home record a clear edge

• Lucas Paqueta to hit the target

West Ham vs AZ Alkmaar
Thu, 20:00 BST
Live on BT Sport 1

Hosts have too much quality

West Ham should be too strong for AZ Alkmaar in the Europa Conference League semi-final first leg on Thursday night.

This game is a great chance to gauge the strength of the Premier League relative to other leagues just outside the top tier of the European league system. West Ham are 15th in the English top flight yet are short odds to win on the night against an AZ side that sit 4th in the Dutch first division.

West Ham are 1.68/13 to win in 90 minutes, with AZ 6.86/1 and the draw 4.131/10.

Yet, despite the fact that David Moyes' hosts are in the Premier League bottom six, it's difficult to argue with the price on them winning here given the strength of the squad at his disposal.

Declan Rice and Lucas Paqueta are expected to start and among a host of internationals that Moyes can call upon as the club targets European success.

West Ham's 1-0 win over Manchester United in the league at the weekend has given them potentially crucial breathing space ahead of this fixture, too.

Thanks to that win, they're now seven points above the Premier League relegation zone with three games to go. As a result, they can focus on this fixture with greater intent than they would done had they been nearer the drop zone.

European form boosts West Ham

West Ham's European form should give them great confidence heading into this game. Across their four knockout fixtures in 2023, their record is W3-D1-L0.

They recorded a 6-0 aggregate victory over AEK Larnaca in the Last 16 before thrashing Gent 5-2 on aggregate in the quarter-finals.

West Ham's home results stand out: they thrashed AEK Larnaca 4-0 at the London Stadium before inflicting a 4-1 victory on Gent in the quarter-finals in front of their jubilant fans.

There are few reasons to suggest that AZ will be able to mount meaningful resistance over the 90 minutes.

The Dutch side impressed in beating Lazio home and away (2-1 and 2-1) in the Last 16, but needed penalties to overcome Anderlecht in the quarter-finals. They lost 2-0 in Belgium before levelling up the tie at 2-2 at home.

AZ's away defeat against inferior opposition in the previous round counts against the visitors here. The atmosphere at the London Stadium should be tremendous, and West Ham, stronger in most departments, should win on the night.

Lucas Paqueta stand-out performer

If the 1.68/13 on a West Ham win on the night is too short to appeal, consider backing the Hammers -1.0 on the Asian Handicap market. With this selection, you'll get your stakes back if the hosts win by a single goal and make a profit if they go on and win by two goals or more.

As we've seen from their last two home matches in the competition, winning by more than two goals is something they're capable of doing.

For those looking to build a goalscorer into their selections, consider Lucas Paqueta.

The Brazilian international has scored four times in the Premier League since the start of the year, and netted three times in April, including a goal in West Ham's home win over Gent in the last round.

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