Marseille 2.166/5 v Feyenoord 3.39/4; The Draw 4.03/1
Thursday 5 May, 20:00
Live on BT Sport ESPN
Marseille have reason to believe
Marseille have a deficit to overturn when they host Feyenoord in the second-leg of their Europa Conference League semi-final.
The French side lost 3-2 in Holland. Having gone two down within 20 minutes, Marseille fought back with goals from Bamba Dieng and Gerson, to level the scores at the break. Feyenoord scored again after nine seconds of the second-half restarting and though Marseille had further chances to equalise, they could not find a goal.
Marseille comfortably enjoyed more possession in the first-leg, registering 60%. The also just edged the most shots on target with seven to Feyenoord's five, so they should have every reason to believe that they can get the win they need at home.
Jorge Sampaoli made six changes at the weekend to freshen up his team and paid the price, as Marseille lost 3-0 at home to Lyon. With three games of the Ligue 1 season remaining, Marseille remain second and in the driving seat to qualify for the Champions League, so it was a risk worth taking. Injured centre-back Leonardo Balerdi remains injured, while Konrad De La Fuente in out for the rest of the season.
Goals flow for Feyenoord in Conference League
Feyenoord have become the great entertainers of the Europa Conference League and come into this match on the back of a string of wins.
They followed the 3-2 victory against Marseille, with a 3-1 win over Fortuna Sittard over the weekend. It was their fifth straight victory and extended their unbeaten run across all competitions to seven games (W6 D1).
Nearly all of Feyenoord's games in the Conference League have produced goals, so they will be confident of adding to the aggregate scoreline. After drawing their first group game 0-0, they have found the net in each of the following ten games, which have seen an average of 4.3 goals-per-match.
This glut of goals has seen Cyriel Dessers become top scorer in the Conference League with ten, which includes a brace against Marseille in the first-leg. Luis Sinisterra scored the other goal for Feyenoord last week, to bring his tally in the competition to eight. When it comes to team selection, Arne Slot doesn't have too many problems, with Justin Bijlow and Jens Toornstra the only players currently injured.
Marseille too short
Marseille are the 2.166/5 favourites to win, with Feyenoord at 3.39/4 and the Draw at 4.03/1.
I backed Marseille to win last week, figuring that they have played much stronger opposition this season than Feyenoord, both in Ligue 1 and in Europe. That argument still stands, but Feyenoord's performance in the first-leg and their ability to score goals, makes Marseille's price look rather slim.
If looking for a bet on the result, backing Feyenoord to avoid defeat at 1.834/5 in the Double Chance market, could be where the value lies. However, there is far more certainty to be found in the goals markets and that's where our recommended bets will come from.
Lots of value in goals markets
Both teams to score has landed in all of Feyenoord's last ten Conference League games, but is too short to recommend at 1.584/7. Better value is over 3.5 goals at 2.526/4, given the average of 4.3 goals-per-game, during that run of ten matches.
There looks to be plenty of value in the player markets. Despite being the top scorer in the competition, Dessers is 3.052/1 to find the net. Sinisterra has not just scored eight times, but also assisted on four occasions and is 15/8 on the Sportsbook to score or assist. In the same market, Marseille's Dimitri Payet is 5/6, having notched three goals and three assists in the Conference League and twelve goals and ten assists in Ligue 1 this season.
A Bet Builder of both teams to score, over 2.5 goals and Payet to score or assist, pays out at 2.77/4. Swap Payet for Sinisterra and the odds swell to 3.78.