UEFA Europa Conference League

Fiorentina v Club Brugge: Back Italians at 6/4 to gain narrow advantage

Vincenzo Italiano
Vicenzo Italiano's Fiorentina side reached the Europa Conference League final last season

Dan Fitch is backing a narrow win for Fiorentina against Club Brugge in the first-leg of their Europa Conference League semi-final...

  • Fiorentina favourites to make final

  • Club Brugge in form since manager switch

  • Quarter-finals fixtures were low scoring

Fiorentina v Club Brugge
Thursday May 2, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports

Viola played sweetly over weekend

Fiorentina are expected to qualify for their second successive Europa Conference League final when they take on Club Brugge.

The Viola have become cup specialists since Vicenzo Italiano took charge in 2021. As well as losing in the final of the Conference League against West Ham last season, they were also runners-up in the Coppa Italia and reached the semi-finals of that competition this season.

Fiorentina's cup runs have perhaps detracted from their Serie A form in recent years. They are currently eighth in the Italian top flight, after thrashing Sassuolo 5-1 over the weekend.

Italiano has a fully fit squad to pick from. Fiorentina are rated at 5/61.84 to take control of the tie by winning this first-leg and 4/61.67 to ultimately progress to the final, in the To Qualify market.

Do one Ron decision pays off

The bold decision to make a mid-season managerial change has boosted the fortunes of Club Brugge.

When the Belgian Pro League entered the Champions' Play-offs section, Brugge sacked their manager Ronny Deila, despite having reached the quarter-final stage of the Europa Conference League. In his place, they appointed Nicky Hayen on a caretaker basis.

Under the new coach, Club Brugge are undefeated in eight games (W7 D1), winning each of their last seven outings. At the weekend they won 3-0 at Genk, which puts them in second place in their domestic league and in with a strong chance of winning the title, having only finished fourth in the first section of the season.

Club Brugge are out at 10/34.33 to pull off a shock in Italy, with the draw at 12/53.40. You can back them at 11/102.11 in the To Qualify market. Their hopes may be boosted by the potential return of a trio of first-team regulars, with Simon Mignolet, Casper Nielsen and Andreas Skov Olsen all back in the squad. Olsen's return is a particular boost, with the Danish winger having scored 23 goals this season.

Low scoring match likely

Fiorentina's last two games have produced a total of 11 goals, but there is reason to believe that Thursday's match will be a low scoring affair.

In the quarter-finals against Viktoria Plzen, the Serie A side struggled to break down the Czechs. The away leg finished 0-0 and the return fixture in Florence also finished goalless in regular time, with Fiorentina securing a 2-0 win with strikes in extra time.

Club Brugge faced PAOK, who they beat 1-0 at home and 2-0 away. Under 2.5 goals is 20/231.87. If you think that Fiorentina will edge this home leg, then you can combine them winning with under 2.5 goals at 3/14.00, or be more cautious and go for a Fiorentina win and under 3.5 goals at 6/42.50.

With both of Fiorentina's matches against PAOK finishing 0-0 in regular time, the goalless half-time score at 9/52.80 may be of interest.

Back Fiorentina to beat Club Brugge and under 3.5 goals at 6/42.50

Bet here

In terms of players whoare likely to get on the scoresheet, Nicolas Gonzalez is Fiorentina's greatest threat. He scored twice in the weekend win against Sassuolo and is 7/52.40 to have two or more shots on target and 17/102.70 to score.

Club Brugge's Thiago has scored 26 goals this season and is 11/43.75 to add to his tally.

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