AZ Alkmaar v Dundee Utd: Dutch will cover the deficit at home

AZ Alkmaar v Dundee Utd
Thursday, 20:00
Live on Premier Sports

Hosts want their revenge

AZ Alkmaar host Dundee United on Thursday in this eagerly anticipated Europa Conference League qualifier at AFAS Stadion, Netherlands, as the Dutch Eredivisie side aims to cover a 0-1 aggregate score.

The locals are red-hot favourites on the Betfair Exchange to win and qualify, but the visitors can't be written off, especially after such a dogged and determined effort in Scotland. Jack Ross and his Tangerines are potentially 90 minutes away from pulling off a huge upset.

Cheeseheads miss their chance

AZ Alkmaar arrived at Tannadice last week looking to put this tie to bed at the earliest opportunity by grabbing a vital away win and scoring a few goals. They could not do both, losing the match and failing to find the back of the net, although the Dutch representatives had most of the ball possession, creating 14 shots at goal.

With more composure in the final third, AZ will fancy their chances of getting things right on their patch, feeding off the crowd and overturning that embarrassing loss suffered in the City of Discovery. They got their domestic campaign off to a flyer at this venue on Sunday, beating Go Ahead Eagles 2-0 thanks to goals from Greek striker Vangelis Pavlidis and 19-year-old debutant Myron van Brederode.

Tangerines tamed by Lions

Dundee United scored one of the most impressive results in the club's recent history when beating AZ Alkmaar 1-0 at Tannadice in the first leg. It was a match they were underdogs to win, but the players fought hard without the ball and then took their big chance when it came, former Rangers attacker Glen Middleton finding the net.

That win over a high-ranking opponent set pulses racing amongst the Dundee United support, but they were brought back to earth with a bump at the weekend, losing 1-0 at home against Livingston. The Lions are no pushovers, and they proved it, taking the points with the winning goal scored by Cristian Montano early in the second half.

Follow the money

All the pressure is on the home team here as they know they must score to remain in the tie, while Dundee United can pull the shutters down and aim to protect their lead. That's easier said than done, of course, but the Scots have plenty of experience sitting back and hitting on the break.

The latest betting available on the Betfair Exchange has AZ Alkmaar at 1.241/4 to win, and that's the bet for us with the locals expected to start fast. They had plenty of the ball last week but lacked a bit of sharpness to make it count. With their 1-0 aggregate lead, Dundee United is 13.525/2 to win with a draw 5.85/1.

Both Dundee United matches played this month have seen just one team on the scoresheet, and that's also true of AZ Alkmaar's two most recent games. Backing no from the both teams to score market looks worthwhile at 1.584/7, making more appeal than yes at 2.427/5.