Euro 2024

Euro 2020 Daily Report: How the key markets are shaping up

  • Charlie Mullan
  • Published on
  • Updated on
  • 06:00 min read
Portugal skipper Cristiano Ronaldo
Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo is the leading scorer at Euro 2020

"Only Belgium and Germany have managed to come from behind to win in Euro 2020 against Denmark and Portugal respectively. Belgium are 12/1 to come from behind to beat Portugal while Germany are 13/1 to win after conceding the first goal against England."

As the 16 remaining teams prepare for the first knockout game of Euro 2020, we take a look at how some of the key markets are shaping up.

Stats say back win to nil in Round of 16

This is the second European Championship to follow the 24-team, Round of 16 format. The format splits opinion with some critics claiming too many poor teams qualify for the knockout stage, while those in favour of the format only have to point to this summer's Group F to fight their case.

The group positions changed nine times with all four nations holding second spot at some stage of their final matches on Wednesday while Portugal who had Cristiano Ronaldo to thank for his two penalties in a 2-2 draw with France, were first, second, third and fourth at different times, before settling in third place.

So what can we expect from the opening round of fixtures in the Round of 16? If this tournament continues the way it has started, we should see more goals scored.

After the 2016 group stage, a total of 69 goals were scored at an average of 2.1 goals per game. Euro 2020's group stage produced 94 goals at an average of 2.6 goals per game, or a goal every 34 minutes.

The most common bet to land in the Round of 16 five years ago was for teams to win to nil which makes perfect sense. With so much at stake, the team scoring first will do all they can to defend that lead and not risk elimination by being adventurous. Portugal, Wales, Belgium, Germany and Italy all progressed to the quarter-finals five years ago by winning to nil.

Exactly half of the 36 games so far this tournament have been won without conceding a goal. Italy are the only team to win all three group matches without conceding a goal and they can be backed at 2.26/5 to beat Austria to nil.

Over 2.5 goals landed in four of the eight Round of 16 ties which has also paid out in 18 of the 36 ties played in Euro 2020. Five years ago, both teams to score happened three times which has happened in 42 per cent of this summer's matches.

France and Iceland both managed to come from behind to win in Euro 2016's Round of 16. So far this summer, only Belgium and Germany have to do so against Denmark and Portugal respectively. Belgium are 12/1 to come from behind to beat Portugal on Sunday while Germany are 13/1 to win on Tuesday after conceding the first goal against England.

Read Max Liu's preview of the key Round of 16 games here.

France remain favourites for third title

Entering Euro 2020, France were the 9/2 favourites and after the completion of the group matches, the French are still top of the market to get their hands on the Henri Delaunay trophy for the third time. Their group was without doubt the toughest and coming top with a win and two draws is no small achievement. France can be backed at 5.59/2 to win the final on July 11 at Wembley.

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By finishing top of Group D, England ensured their Round of 16 tie against Germany will be staged at Wembley, which is where the semi-finals and final will also be played. The Three Lions reached the semis 25 years ago and are looking to not only reach their first ever Euros final, but win it too. Gareth Southgate's side are 11/2 second favourites to win the tournament.

Looking for an outsider to cause a shock? How about two teams that took maximum points from their group games? The Netherlands and Belgium cruised through their groups with only a minor scare along the way.

The Netherlands conceded twice in four minutes in their 3-2 win over Ukraine in their opening game. Belgium had to come from behind to beat Denmark in their second game. Both nations are 9/1 to be crowned kings of Europe next month.

Can Ronaldo be caught in the Golden Boot race?

Cristiano Ronaldo is rolling back the years in Euro 2020 by leading the tournament with five goals so far. That's two more than the chasing pack that includes Belgium's Romelu Lukakau and the Netherland's Georginio Wijnaldum.

Can Portugal's 36-year-old skipper add to his total and lead his country to back-to-back European Championship titles? He was 13/1 two days before his first game to win the Golden Boot, but he can now be backed at 1.845/6 on the exchange.

Romelu Lukaku's three goals at Euro 2020 has taken his total to 63 goals in 96 appearances for Belgium.

Lukaku can't be ruled out just yet. With a two-goal deficit to close, expect the Inter star to be firing on all cylinders when he goes head-to-head with Ronaldo in Seville on Sunday. Lukaku will hope his defensive team-mates can stifle the Juventus star and not concede any penalties. Three of Ronaldo's five goals have come from the penalty spot.

Wijnaldum is also in with a chance of finishing as the leading scorer. The midfielder's role in the Dutch team allows him to roam forward whenever he sees fit, and his timing this summer has been impeccable. Having Memphis Depay and Wout Weghorst to occupy defenders, the PSG-bound Wijnaldum, is 16/1 to continue scoring and help the Oranje get as far as they can.

Whatever happens to Patrik Schick in the rest of his career, his second goal from 50 yards against Scotland will live long in the memory. Schick is also on three goals, but he was unable to add to those when he came up against England's well-organised defence. Lying in wait for Schick and the Czech Republic are more solid defences and chances for the 25-year-old might be few and far between. Schick is 25/1 to be the tournament's top scorer.

Swedish midfielder Emil Forsberg is in contention, but you have to wonder how far Sweden will go in the tournament. They might be able to get past Ukraine, but will they beat the winner of England/Germany? Perhaps not, but you never know. At 50/1, he might be worth an each way bet.

Dutch aim to stay top of the goalscoring charts

The mathematics are simple. The more games a team plays, the more chances they have to score goals. So, a team more likely to get to the final should be considered for this bet.

Antoine Griezmann - 1280.jpg

At the conclusion of the group stage five years ago, Wales and Hungary were leading the way with six goals each. Beaten finalists France were two goals further back, but ended the tournament as the leading scorers with 13 total goals with Antoine Griezmann scoring six times.

One big game can swing this bet. France beat Iceland 5-2 in the quarter-finals to boost their goals scored. After the group stage this summer, the Netherlands lead the way with eight goals followed by Italy, Belgium and Portugal who enter the second round on seven goals. The Dutch can be backed at 3.613/5 to be the highest scoring team.

The Italians have impressed a lot of people this summer. They along with England, are the only nations yet to concede a goal in the tournament. Italy are 6.25/1 on the exchange to be this tournament's leading scorers, while Belgium are 7.613/2.

Don't disregard France at 11.521/2 just yet. They should be too strong for Switzerland in the Round of 16 and they won't be put off by facing either Croatia or Spain in the quarter-finals. If Kylian Mbappe can find his scoring boots, then France should be a threat in front of goal with the attacking options open to them.

Time for individuals to make their mark

Throughout the group stage, several players have emerged as candidates to win the player of the tournament award. There has been a trend that you should to be aware of. Tournament organisers like to give the accolade to a player from the winning team ever since the first award was given to Germany's Matthius Sammer in 1996.

Joining his name on the trophy in chronological order are Zinedine Zidane, Theodoros Zagarakis, Xavi, Andreas Iniesta and Antoine Griezmann. Remember that when placing your bet. You have to decide which team is more likely to get to the final and win it. If you think Belgium can be victorious, then Kevin de Bruyne is your bet at 8.27/1 to be named the player of the tournament.

De Bruyne missed the first game and a half, but has been superb for the Red Devils ever since and after breaking his nose and eye socket in Manchester City's loss to Chelsea in the Champions League final, motivation won't be too hard for the 29-year-old.

Ronaldo stat 250621.png

Obviously Cristiano Ronaldo is in with a chance of winning the award, if he can lead his country to back-to-back titles. The 36-year-old need four goals to equal Michel Platini's single tournament record of nine goals set in 1984 when France won their first title. Ronaldo is a 10.09/1 option on the exchange.

N'golo Kante's performances for Chelsea and France this season have made him a serious contender to win the Ballon d'Or award. The midfielder can be backed at 2.111/10 to win that award and 12.011/1 to be named the best player at Euro 2020.

As for the best young player, this tournament is crying out for a rising star to grab it by the scruff of the neck and make it their own. UEFA only introduced this award at the last European Championships with Portugal's Ronato Sanchez winning the inaugural award.

Again, UEFA will probably hand it to a young player from the winning nation. Italy have gone close to 18 hours since they last conceded a goal and that is down to the performances of keeper Gianluigi Donnarumma who has hardly been troubled this tournament. The 22-year-old is available at 7.06/1 to take the award while Germany's Kai Havertz leads the market at 5.04/1.

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

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